2012 US Election Prediction…
My topline prediction is- OBAMA 290 ROMNEY 248
Although Romney will likely take Florida, I don’t see him taking Ohio, Virginia or Wisconsin. If Obama takes those three States, he will almost certainly be re-elected as President. Obama’s better ground game will be crucial in returning him to office as well.
As for the popular vote, I see it as a dead heat. Large amounts of the East Coast will probably stay at home due to disenfranchisement with the incumbent due to to Superstorm Sandy. This will mean that the Democrat vote will be suppressed somewhat.
This election in numerical terms will nigh on be a repeat of 2004 and not as close (at least in Electoral College Votes) as 2000.
November 5, 2012 at 9:04 PM
I agree with you on the close popular vote and that Virginia may not go Romney’s way. I have Romney winning 271-267, but your scenario is certainly plausible.