Eastleigh By-Election Prediction…

My topline prediction is: –

LIB DEM BY 1K UKIP CON LAB

The Lib Dems should hang on to Eastleigh despite challenges from UKIP and the Tories. UKIP should in edge out the Tories to take second place as they seem to have spent serious money on campaigning in Eastleigh. With the exception of Labour the major parties have fielded very “safe” (read dull) candidates which will ultimately have helped the incumbent Lib Dems. I would predict that the fallout from Eastleigh will not be that great short term as the Tories and Labour both gear up for the Budget. However, if the Tories do not win Eastleigh then the Budget becomes much more important for the blue half of the Coalition and for David Cameron.

Could Baroness Warsi’s UKIP/BNP Comments Seal Her Fate?..

I think so.

2012 London Mayoral Prediction…

Topline First Round Prediction- Johnson 45 Livingstone 39 Paddick 7 Benita 3 Webb 3 Jones 2 Cortiglia 1

Topline Second Round Prediction- Johnson 51 Livingstone 49

Unless Johnson’s vote does not come out/is very soft, I cannot see any other outcome but a very narrow win for the blue team. I see the majority of second preferences going to Livingstone but Johnson should have enough votes from the first round to win in the second round.

Paddick is assured of third, Benita because of her “low key’ campaign should secure fourth and Webb should edge out Jones for fifth. All of which should mean that next time around the Green Party will not be included in the televised debates.

2012 Local Election Predictions…

Quick topline prediction in seats: –

LAB +600 CON -400 LIB DEM -250 OTHERS +50

If Labour do not get near six hundred seats then questions will be asked of Ed Miliband’s leadership given Labour’s sizable lead in all polls. Questions will also be asked of Ed Miliband if Labour lose control of Glasgow Council to the SNP which I think they will do (just). For Labour to call the Local Elections a success they need to take seats across the country including the South and South West, it will not be enough to win seats in their usual strongholds.

The Tories know that they will lose seats to Labour but likely gain a few from the Lib Dems. Both parties in the Coalition will be already looking forward to the Queen’s Speech which should provide a clean break of sorts from the shambles of the Budget.

As for the others UKIP should pick up seats from the three main parties as should the Greens. Respect are fielding twelve candidates in Bradford and I’d be surprised if they don’t take seats from Labour given Galloway’s heroics in Bradford West a few weeks ago. The Nationalists should do well in their respective countries but Plaid Cymru could find the going tough under new far left leadership.

In summary, the pressure is on Labour. With the economy now in recession and both Coalition parties doing badly in the polls they have to have a strong showing to prove that they are a party that is capable of governing again.

 

Bradford West By-Election Prediction…

My quick prediction topline prediction is- LAB by 6k RESPECT CON LIB DEM UKIP GRN

I see Galloway doing well in Bradford West on sheer curiosity alone and the Lib Dems edging out UKIP as their Budget policies have been well received in the past week. Turnout may be as low as thirty five percent as the By-Election campaign has been very short. Anything less than a solid Labour hold will be a major shock in Bradford West.

Good Week, Bad Week 27/11/11…

Good Week

Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister has had a relatively good week introducing a subsidy for businesses taking on young people. This type of policy is perfect for Clegg to unveil as it fits in with his party’s mantra of social justice. Clegg must still be worried by the Lib Dems dire poll ratings however.

Nigel Farage- The UKIP leader has had a decent week in the polls. His party are breathing down the necks of the Lib Dems in the daily YouGov tracker polls and recorded an eleven percent share in a Survation poll today. Sadly for Farage the European elections are in 2014.

David Miliband- The elder Miliband has been rumoured to make a return to the Shadow Cabinet this week. Such a return could prove controversial but would provide Labour with a recognised “big beast” on their front bench, something which they are lacking at the moment.

Bad Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had a fairly poor week. The country is on the brink of recession and he is facing a series of strikes from the unions. Out with the man in the street he is not doing well. However, the ineptitude of Ed Miliband currently means politically he is doing (fairly) well. Unless public opinion gets behind the strikes I can see Cameron not being damaged politically by them.

Ed Miliband- The Leader of the Opposition is having a terrible time of it recently, although his tales of woe are all self inflicted. Consistent poor performances at Prime Minister’s Questions and not taking a stance on the strike mean Miliband is still not making headway. Miliband needs to come back in the new year with some solid policies and a renewed attitude otherwise I can foresee his party turning on him, almost guaranteeing a Tory victory in 2015 in the process.

Ed Balls- Balls cries at the Antiques Roadshow. Not exactly a conventional way of softening one’s image.

Good Week, Bad Week 13/11/11…

Good Week

Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister has done very little yet again this week, apart from seeing his party’s YouGov poll rating plunge to within a percentage point of UKIP.

Mario Monti- Monti, a technocrat, became Italian Prime Minister. He is likely to govern only for a few months before elections are held, with his principle mission to be to stabilise the country’s finances and to appease the bond markets.

Bad Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had a rather dull week. An uninspiring outing at Prime Minister’s Questions plus fears over immigration has seen a slight drop in the polls for the Tories. The only consolation for Cameron currently is Ed Miliband is doing so terribly as Leader of the Opposition.

Ed Miliband- The Leader of the Opposition is becoming a bit of bandwagon jumper. A prime example of Miliband’s bandwagon jumping was his criticism of Newcastle United’s Stadium being renamed. When a politician does this it not only shows opportunism it also shows he has very few policies to showcase. Miliband’s position is stable at the current time but with strikes on the horizon I can see a “Yvette Cooper For Labour Leader” campaign beginning before Christmas.

Theresa May- The Home Secretary doesn’t seem to be totally in control of her department at the moment. I predict if further revelations break regarding immigration May will be reshuffled out of her position in favour of Damian Green.

Silvio Berlusconi- Berlusconi finally left office this week- don’t rule out a comeback however!

Good Week, Bad Week 30/10/11…

Good Week

Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister has had a good week this week. The changing of the Royal succession rules, ratified at the Commonwealth Summit, was Clegg’s idea which although not that important in the short term will change the make up of the Royal Family forever. Clegg also talked tough over Europe this week to solidify his position on the subject to his party and the wider public. However, the Lib Dems poll ratings are dire with YouGov, so Clegg needs to connect with the electorate (especially disgruntled 2010 Lib Dem voters) more effectively to see his party’s position improve.

Nigel Farage- With UKIP at seven percent in the YouGov polls and the Tories at each others’ throats over Europe, this week has been a very good one for Farage.

Bad Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had an awful week with the issue of Europe threatening to split his party yet again. With over eighty Tory MPs rebelling on an EU In/Out Referendum Cameron will know that Europe is not going to go away in his back benchers’ minds quickly. This week would have been made worse if Ed Miliband actually had showed up to Prime Minister’s Questions, but as per normal, he did not.

Ed Miliband- The Leader of the Opposition had an appalling week after fluffing one of the easiest opportunities to land blows on the Prime Minister Wednesday in The Commons. Miliband at this point has the traction of a broken down escalator and I can only see things getting worse for him in the short term.

Harriet Harman- Harman is alleged to be holding all female Shadow Cabinet meetings after  normal Shadow Cabinet meeting. Not only is this rather pointless if true, it would surely prove to divide the Shadow Cabinet yet further.

Gloria De Piero- De Piero put on one of the worst performances in Question Time history on Thursday night, not answering the questions and rigidly sticking to her party’s (imaginary) lines.

Local Election Predictions…

Here are five quick predictions for the upcoming Local Elections on May 5th: –

The Conservatives will do badly as they are defending well over half the council seats in the election- How badly the Tories do is linked in part to the performance of their Coalition partners the Liberal Democrats, and who the public perceive to blame for the cuts. A good night for the Tories would be to keep their losses below the five hundred seat mark but I believe they will end up losing nearer eight hundred seats. David Cameron has been quite visible during the campaign to try and sell his ideas across the country but I doubt his work will pay off come polling day.

The Liberal Democrats will have a terrible night- This prediction is a given. Nick Clegg’s party are doing poorly in the polls and the public’s perception of him isn’t much better. The Lib Dems are defending slightly more seats than Labour but could endure losses on a scale similar to the Tories. Losses of a thousand or so seats would certainly fuel leadership speculation yet again but I suspect the Lib Dems will incur losses of around six hundred seats so Clegg’s position should be safe for the time being.

Labour should top one thousand council seat gains easily- The bare minimum seat gain target for Ed Miliband’s party should be the 566 seat gains Iain Duncan Smith made in the Local Elections in 2003. Labour are coming from a very low base however, defending only seventeen percent of council seats, so they should pass this target with ease. I predict Labour will pick up a lot of disaffected Lib Dem votes plus those who wish to vote tactically to send a message to the Government, so therefore around twelve hundred seat gains would seem reasonable. The only issue with such a giant seat haul for Labour is that they will have more councils under their control which will have to administer the Coalition cuts and may become unpopular throughout their term.

The smaller parties will make gains from both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats- The likes of UKIP, the Green party, and others will make modest gains from the Coalition partners as those who cannot bring themselves to vote for Labour will seek other candidates who they feel will bring change their local wards. I would predict in total the “Others” will make around one hundred gains in total.

The result of the Local Elections will add to the result of the AV Referendum- The AV Referendum result will be known roughly a day later than the Local Election results so the media will devote near enough forty eight hours to both elections. If the No to AV camp wins the Referendum this could curb any momentum (half of) Labour have and provide a “double whammy” to the Lib Dems.

Good Week, Bad Week 06/03/11…

Good Week

David Cameron- Cameron has had a rather decent if uneventful week. The crisis in Libya seems to be gaining him plaudits from around the world (especially in America) for his leadership against the Gaddafi regime. The Prime Minister’s speech today at his Spring Conference was solid if unspectacular, setting the scene for the budget later this month and for growth in the medium term. The Tories distant third place in Barnsley Central by-election was to be expected and the party has received very little negative press after the result.

Ed Miliband- Miliband has had a very good week because of his party increasing their vote share on their 2010 General Election result in the Barnsley by-election. The leader of the opposition’s trumpeting of the result was to be expected but Miliband must know that he and his party will face the electorate in four years time when the political landscape may be very different.

Dan Jarvis- The former soldier convincingly won the Barnsley by-election and so has had an excellent week. He may wish to save the “Ed Miliband for PM” rhetoric for later on in the Parliamentary cycle however.

Nigel Farage- UKIP finished a strong second in the Barnsley by-election with Farage declaring his party were the new opposition to the Coalition. Whilst it’s a great result for UKIP, the next European Elections are in 2014, so Farage and his party need to not get too ahead of themselves.

Bad Week

Nick Clegg- Clegg has had a terrible week thanks to his party’s result in the Barnsley by-election, with the Lib Dems being beaten into a lowly sixth by an independent candidate and the British National Party. Governments typically do badly in by-elections but the loss of their deposit will prove to be a wake up call to the Lib Dems in my opinion. There has already been talk about keeping the party tacked in to the left, as to make a Coalition with Labour easier in 2015 should that eventuality arise. I think the Clegg should try and keep his party as central as possible as to maximise their chances of getting into Government again (after all a Labour victory isn’t assured this far out from a General Election).

Dominic Carman- Carman, the Lib Dem candidate in Barnsley Central, stated in his post result speech that “he had taken a right kicking”. A early nomination for the understatement of the year right there.