My topline prediction is: –
LIB DEM BY 1K UKIP CON LAB
The Lib Dems should hang on to Eastleigh despite challenges from UKIP and the Tories. UKIP should in edge out the Tories to take second place as they seem to have spent serious money on campaigning in Eastleigh. With the exception of Labour the major parties have fielded very “safe” (read dull) candidates which will ultimately have helped the incumbent Lib Dems. I would predict that the fallout from Eastleigh will not be that great short term as the Tories and Labour both gear up for the Budget. However, if the Tories do not win Eastleigh then the Budget becomes much more important for the blue half of the Coalition and for David Cameron.