Three Reasons Why Cameron Should Not Fear a Hung Parliament…

It’s my view that recent polls are not a fair indication of the marginals or indeed of the overall General Election result, a decent sized Conservative majority is still very likely. However if David Cameron does fall short of an overall majority then he has three reasons to feel confident.

The first as highlighted today is that Labour are so poor at plotting a “Brownfall” that even if they were able to keep the Tories from gaining a majority they could fight on with Brown as leader. Clearly in this scenario Labour would have massive problems holding onto seats with a man who already had lost one election in the calendar year.

Secondly, the Liberal Democrats aren’t going to enter a coalition without hefty demands. If (somehow) Labour win the most seats they would face the prospect of the Liberal Democrats wanting electoral reform, Vince Cable installed as Chancellor and perhaps an ultimatum for Labour to change their leader. If the Tories gain the most seats I doubt that they would enter any type of talks with the Liberal Democrats, preferring to hold another election.

And finally, there is the fact Labour have little money to fight one General Election campaign, let alone two. If the polls coming into the election show less than an eight point lead for the Tories, then Labour have to make the decision whether to spend all their money on the Spring campaign or hold some back in the eventuality of a second election.

A Conservative victory falling short of a majority by a few seats could be better than a majority of twenty or so because of the factors outlined above.

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