Is “250” The Magic Number For Brown?..

With Labour almost certain to lose power at the next General Election, speculation has already started as to whether or not Gordon Brown will resign as leader of the party after defeat or fight on in opposition. A likely scenario is that Brown will simply keep leading the party after the General Election until someone challenges him. For an election to happen at the present time any challenger would need a fifth of Labour MPs (around 70) to nominate him/her to force an election, however after the General Election with widespread predicted losses that number would decrease significantly.

If Labour gain 250 seats at the General Election then a challenge could be mounted with 50 nominations. At 250 seats, Labour could lose the General Election to either a Tory majority or be the second biggest party in terms of seats. If a second General Election were to be called later in the year, then about 50 Labour MPs would be in danger of losing their seats going on current swing projections.

Were Brown and Labour to secure higher than 250 seats then any challenge would require more than just disillusioned Labour MPs looking at the loss of their seats. If Labour gain less than 250 seats then, even if there were no second election, Brown would likely face a challenge from the left of his party (remember that John McDonnell gained 29 nominations in the Leadership Election of 2007 in a more united Labour party). Brown, for all his weaknesses, has warded off numerous plots to oust him well (by luck or his skill). I can see Brown surviving in the short term unless Labour lose by a landslide in one or two General Elections.


One Response to “Is “250” The Magic Number For Brown?..”

  1. Unfortunately I am forced to agree with you. He just won’t go away 😉

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