General Election Predictions…

Number of Seats

Conservatives 311 Labour 231 Liberal Democrats 79

The Tories face an electoral mountain, one that is in my opinion too steep to climb in one election. The anti-politics feeling after the expenses scandal and Gordon Brown’s constant scaremongering will mean that the Tories’ vote could be squeezed as some voters decide against change. The Liberal Democrats will pick up seats, the vast majority of which will come from Labour in the North and West of England. Cameron will likely govern as a minority for a number of months, holding another election later this year before the big cuts have to be made.

Turnout

Turnout will be high, perhaps even breaking the seventy percent barrier. This election has been reported as pivotal by the media, unlike the previous two in 2005 and 2001 which were glorified processions due to Labour’s seemingly unbeatable majority. The televised leaders debates have helped heighten awareness of the election but ultimately the pivotal nature of the choice facing the country will ensure a decent sized turnout.

Share of the Vote

Conservatives 36% Labour 29% Liberal Democrats 26%

The Tories will be well ahead of both of the other parties in terms of vote share, with Labour just avoiding their worst vote share in modern history. Although Brown has on the whole had a terrible campaign, he has shown passion in the last few days, and so he can expect perhaps a slightly better vote share than he was last weekend. The Liberal Democrats will be firmly in third, but will increase their share on 2005’s total because of their increased media exposure in the campaign.

Individual Seat Predictions (In declaration order)

Oldham East & Saddleworth- Phil Woolas will lose his seat to the Liberal Democrat candidate Elwyn Watkins here I predict. The slight increase in Liberal Democrat support nationally and the ineptitude of Woolas’ media appearances should mean that it should be a relatively easy gain for the yellow team.

Bristol East- Twitter Tsar Kerry McCarthy will hold Bristol East for Labour, with a vastly reduced majority after the shenanigans of the past few weeks. Expect a strong challenge from both the Liberal Democrats and the Tories here.

Lincoln- Health Minister Gillian Merron will be defeated by the Tory candidate Karl McCartney here I feel. A combination of rarely being in the constituency and championing frankly bizarre causes should end her parliamentary career for the time being.

Morley & Outwood- I’m going to go against the grain here and say that Ed Balls will win the seat. The notional majority of eight and a half thousand may be just too much for Antony Calvert to overturn. The seat will certainly be a marginal at the next election however, which will almost certainly end his chances of becoming Labour party leader in the near future.

Brighton Pavillion- Charlotte Vere of the Tories will cause a slight upset here I predict, narrowly beating Caroline Lucas of the Green party. The three left wing parties will split their finite vote evenly whereas in certain parts of the constituency, the leafy suburbs where a large percentage of the voters live, will almost exclusively vote blue.

Brent Central- Brent East’s sitting MP, Sarah Teather of the Liberal Democrats takes on the incumbent Dawn Butler of Labour. The Brent East constituency has been abolished so it’s a winner take all scenario, where Teather I believe will triumph because of the upward momentum of her party and Butler’s expenses claims.

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