AV Referendum Prediction…


I predict the No To AV camp will win the AV Referendum by around eight to ten percentage points. The Yes campaign hasn’t really touched upon the actual merits of the non compulsory ranking Alternative Vote system over First Past The Post and that is why I believe the Yes To AV side will not be successful. The message of “One Person, One Vote” by the No campaign has resonated with the public more than the rather vague “Fairer Votes” message of the Yes campaign in my opinion. I also predict the majority of England, Scotland and Wales will all vote No To AV with the majority Northern Ireland perhaps plumping for Yes To AV.

If The Yes campaign do lose I suspect they will blame a poor turnout caused by the Referendum’s timing and the rather negative No campaign rhetoric. David Cameron and his party faithful will be very happy if the No To AV campaign is successful as it will show he can win an election outright. Nick Clegg will be annoyed with the result, but as he hasn’t actively played a part in the campaign publicly I doubt this loss will affect his poll ratings or indeed the leadership of his party. Ed Miliband will be not too upset with the result as half his party back the No Campaign and again he has not been prominent in the Yes campaign, only appearing at selected events. I expect there to be a lengthy dissection of the Referendum result immediately afterwards but by the time Parliament returns after it’s summer break I think the result will be largely forgotten.

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