Northern Irish/Scottish/Welsh Election Predictions…


Here are some brief thoughts on the upcoming devolved elections in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales: –

In Northern Ireland I predict the Democratic Unionist Party should remain the biggest party in the Assembly with slightly more seats than Sinn Féin. None of the Coalition parties are (in name at least) on the ballot paper so I expect there to be minimal movement in seats from the 2007 result.

In Scotland I predict the Scottish National Party will be the largest party by five to ten seats from Labour. Labour’s campaign has been lackluster and it is possible they could lose seats from their current tally of forty six. If that were to happen Ed Miliband would face questions as to how his party can be so far ahead in the polls nationally but do so poorly in their perceived stronghold of Scotland. The Coalition partners will likely lose seats at the expense of the SNP, Labour and the Green Party but the Tories may do better than expected in the List vote given Annabel Goldie’s popularity. After the results are in I for see the SNP governing as a minority Government without the reliance on as much cross party support to get their policies through because they will have more seats.

In Wales I predict Labour will fall short of a majority by a few seats. I expect Labour to form a minority Government and snub any Coalition with Plaid Cymru as to been seen to show they can deliver a strong recovery for Wales. A “rainbow” Tory led Coalition between the smaller parties in Wales is incredibly unlikely as Plaid Cymru has stated categorically they would not be able to work in partnership with the Conservatives when questioned.

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One Response to “Northern Irish/Scottish/Welsh Election Predictions…”

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