Can Ken Livingstone Still Become London Mayor?..

Short answer “no”. Long answer “perhaps”. For Ken Livingstone to stand a chance of winning at this stage he needs three things to happen: –

Livingstone needs to release his full accounts- If he does not then great chunks of the remaining London Mayoral television debates will focus solely on his tax affairs. This clearly would play into Boris Johnson’s hands who already has said that the election is about “trust”, and with Livingstone’s full accounts remaining unpublished this would back up Johnson’s claim that the former London Mayor is indeed a “f***ing liar”.

Livingstone needs to stop talking about unfunded/wacky promises in the debates- A cut in transport fares. The reinstatement of the Educational Maintenance Allowance. Making London a separate state from the rest of the UK. All are at best highly ambitious and at worst utterly bonkers. Livingstone needs to accept we live in tough fiscal times and that the public simply will not even give a hearing to a candidate who strays from this narrative. The former London Mayor needs to talk about everyday issues and find solutions to them that are fiscally realistic. This is a tough ask given his socialist background but possible given the fact he has actually already been Mayor of London (which a lot of people seem to have totally forgotten about).

Livingstone needs the national polls to show a relatively large lead for Labour- If the national polls start to tighten then the need for Livingstone to win on May 3rd will increase significantly as Ed Miliband’s leadership comes under more scrutiny, heaping pressure on him in turn. Livingstone doesn’t seem to like pressure (who does?) so a solid ten point lead for Labour for a few weeks would allow him a chance to campaign without any such issues. I personally cannot see this happening even with YouGov but it is possible.

If the three scenarios above all play out for Livingstone then he has a moderate chance (around thirty three percent in my opinion) of becoming London Mayor. However, if he carries on with the smoke, mirrors and absurd statements then I can only see one winner on May 3rd, and that is Boris Johnson.

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2 Responses to “Can Ken Livingstone Still Become London Mayor?..”

  1. ohnonotkenagain Says:

    Ken seems to have two policies…

    a) Reduced fares – but this seems based on dodgy accounting and does not stand up to scrutity – as does his tax payments

    b) Increased EMA – pointing out that Boris will pay £12k less in tax due to the reduction in the 50% tax rate to 45% – but again this point is fatally undermined – as Ken dodged more tax than Boris – so ken is more to blame for the EMA crisis than Gordon Brown and Boris

  2. angelnstar Says:

    I don’t believe it is now possible for Red Ken to win. He is too damaged. His chronic misspending when Mayor, the £20,500 meal for Hugo Chavez, the £36K holiday to Cuba amongst other lavish holidays, the payoffs, the cronyism.

    People have stopped believing he can cut fares, restore the EMA or bring back Elvis. They just deaf his promises now.

    Because he has practised legal tax avoidance, his political ethos is blown sky high, he is one of rich 1%, a rich bastard, who has conned the public to boot.

    His divisiveness is his worst flaw. The Times pointed out he is exploiting racial tensions within the capital for his own gain. Inexcusable behaviour. Ken has created a lot of bad feeling. Even the Muslims think he is a dick.

    There is nothing dislikeable about Boris, He is highly intelligent, popular, with good ideas. National politics should affect the situation in London, but I don’t believe it will. Ken has no chance now.

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