2012 Local Election Predictions…

Quick topline prediction in seats: –

LAB +600 CON -400 LIB DEM -250 OTHERS +50

If Labour do not get near six hundred seats then questions will be asked of Ed Miliband’s leadership given Labour’s sizable lead in all polls. Questions will also be asked of Ed Miliband if Labour lose control of Glasgow Council to the SNP which I think they will do (just). For Labour to call the Local Elections a success they need to take seats across the country including the South and South West, it will not be enough to win seats in their usual strongholds.

The Tories know that they will lose seats to Labour but likely gain a few from the Lib Dems. Both parties in the Coalition will be already looking forward to the Queen’s Speech which should provide a clean break of sorts from the shambles of the Budget.

As for the others UKIP should pick up seats from the three main parties as should the Greens. Respect are fielding twelve candidates in Bradford and I’d be surprised if they don’t take seats from Labour given Galloway’s heroics in Bradford West a few weeks ago. The Nationalists should do well in their respective countries but Plaid Cymru could find the going tough under new far left leadership.

In summary, the pressure is on Labour. With the economy now in recession and both Coalition parties doing badly in the polls they have to have a strong showing to prove that they are a party that is capable of governing again.

 

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2 Responses to “2012 Local Election Predictions…”

  1. A good example of Labour showing they have some credential is typified in my home-town Brentwood. Labour have one seat in the council and their leader (Mike Le-Surf, the lone councillor) has bent over backwards to try to become the “real opposition” to the Tory run council. Some Labour “heavy-weights” hove rolled in of late (Yvette Cooper for one) to try and push for votes but in reality, Brentwood council has swung between Lib-Dems and Tory for decades now and Labour rarely get a look in. I can’t see it changing that much to make the impact they would hope for – but I can see Labour getting one more seat on the council. That person will be, ironically, Le-Surf’s wife.

  2. uglyfatbloke Says:

    Labour will be desperate to retain control of Glasgow and the Tories will be more than happy to make an alliance with them even if it gives them no actual influence at all, just so long as the Gnats are kept out; Glasgow is not so much a target for the Gnats to win as for Labour to not lose. If labour loses they will blame it on having a democratic electoral system. If the Gnats don’t win Labour/Tory/Gib-Dumbs will tell us the wheels have come of the nationalist bandwagon. The politcal landscape must be thickly-strewn with all the wheels that have come of it already…..Probable result ? Labour/ToryGlib-Dumb coalition

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