Archive for Alternative Vote

Good Week, Bad Week 08/05/2011…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , on May 8, 2011 by eljmayes

Good Week

David Cameron– The Prime Minister has had an outstanding week with the Conservatives gaining council seats against the odds and the No to AV campaign convincingly the Alternative Vote Referendum. Cameron is now in the position of power in the Coalition and will likely, bar the NHS reforms, not give away any more concessions to the Lib Dems. This stance will delight his activists, the Tory leaning papers and his own back benchers.

Alex Salmond- The Scottish National Party’s ability to gain a majority against all the odds means Salmond has had an incredible week. Two issues that will be at the back of the First Minister’s mind however are how he is going to govern Scotland and the timing of an Independence Referendum. The SNP has to deliver on their manifesto fully now that they have a majority which I think will be difficult given the budget constraints in the next five years. Salmond will almost certainly hold the Independence Referendum after the General Election of 2015, with the SNP hoping for a Tory majority Government in Westminster to make their life easier campaigning for Scottish Independence.

Annabel Goldie- Although the Scottish Conservatives endured losses, their vote did not collapse anywhere near as much as the Lib Dems in Scotland. Goldie has remained leader of the Scottish Conservatives and I’d wager her party will improve on their current tally of fifteen seats in 2016.

Bad Week

Nick Clegg- Massive losses in the Scottish and council elections plus the Alternative Vote Referendum means the Deputy Prime Minister has had a terrible week. I expect Clegg now to distance himself in person from the Coalition’s economic policies and focus in on social led policies such as education. The Lib Dems have nowhere to go at the moment as a snap General Election would decimate their total number of MPs, so it is in their interest to adopt as more business like approach to the Coalition and try to re-establish their activist base at local level.

Ed Miliband- Miliband has has a woeful week, with a poor number of gains in the council elections, the loss of the Alternative Vote Referendum and a heavy loss in the Scottish elections. The Leader of the Opposition needs desperately to set his sights on the Conservatives and must find a resonating narrative on the economy quickly as the right of his party seem to growing restless with his leadership. A loss for Ken Livingstone in the London Mayoral Election next year may prove to be one loss too many for Miliband who I believe to be living on borrowed time as party leader already in this Parliamentary cycle.

Iain Gray- Gray swiftly resigned after his lackluster campaign led to an awful result for his party. I doubt he will be gunning for a Scottish Westminster seat anytime soon.

Tavish Scott- Scott’s party imploded spectacularly allowing in part for the SNP to gain an overall majority in the Scottish Parliament. He rightfully resigned and I doubt he, like Iain Gray, will be gunning for a Scottish Westminster seat anytime soon.


Alan Johnson Gets “Passionate” About The AV Referendum…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , on May 5, 2011 by eljmayes

By swearing at Labour Peer Paul Boateng. Strong language in this video.

William Roache Backs No to AV…

Posted in Politics with tags , , on May 4, 2011 by eljmayes

But who does Deirdre Barlow back;)?

AV Referendum Prediction…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , on April 28, 2011 by eljmayes

I predict the No To AV camp will win the AV Referendum by around eight to ten percentage points. The Yes campaign hasn’t really touched upon the actual merits of the non compulsory ranking Alternative Vote system over First Past The Post and that is why I believe the Yes To AV side will not be successful. The message of “One Person, One Vote” by the No campaign has resonated with the public more than the rather vague “Fairer Votes” message of the Yes campaign in my opinion. I also predict the majority of England, Scotland and Wales will all vote No To AV with the majority Northern Ireland perhaps plumping for Yes To AV.

If The Yes campaign do lose I suspect they will blame a poor turnout caused by the Referendum’s timing and the rather negative No campaign rhetoric. David Cameron and his party faithful will be very happy if the No To AV campaign is successful as it will show he can win an election outright. Nick Clegg will be annoyed with the result, but as he hasn’t actively played a part in the campaign publicly I doubt this loss will affect his poll ratings or indeed the leadership of his party. Ed Miliband will be not too upset with the result as half his party back the No Campaign and again he has not been prominent in the Yes campaign, only appearing at selected events. I expect there to be a lengthy dissection of the Referendum result immediately afterwards but by the time Parliament returns after it’s summer break I think the result will be largely forgotten.

AV Sports Day…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , on April 19, 2011 by eljmayes

All I learnt from this video is that Ocean Colour Scene are now probably Tories;).

Five Reasons Why I’ll Be Voting No to AV on May 5th…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , on April 18, 2011 by eljmayes

Here are the five main reasons why I will be voting No to AV on May 5th: –

The seat winner does not need to secure fifty percent of the total votes cast under AV- A major pillar of the Yes to AV campaign is that a candidate needs to secure over (or approaching) fifty percent of the total votes cast to win- this simply is not the case as ranking every candidate is not compulsory and votes are “lost” throughout the rounds. Therefore (non compulsory ranking) AV is essentially a top up version of First Past The Post which will create two types of MPs, those who have a majority of the total votes cast in their constituencies and those who do not.

AV will not get rid of safe seats- No voting system from First Past The Post to Proportional Representation abolishes safe seats. Whether MPs are elected in constituencies or by a list system there will always be a core vote for each of the major parties which will ensure a third of seats will be safe. AV would admittedly put more seats “in play” so to speak, but the exact number would be unclear until the boundary review is conducted later in the Parliamentary cycle.

AV isn’t the first step towards PR- Unless Labour and/or the Conservatives decide Proportional Representation is the way forward (which is highly unlikely since they both like being in Government on their own) PR will remain a pipe dream for the smaller parties and the voting system’s supporters. AV being implemented will not bring PR a step closer as isn’t a proportional system.

Counts under AV will take longer- Having several rounds will inevitably make the process of counting votes in certain seats longer, especially if each there are recounts in any round.

Alliances will be formed before the General Election if AV was implemented- Smaller parties’ policies will take a back seat to their second preferences under AV. For certain parties an alliance would be easy to formulate (for example the Green Party would likely back Labour as their second preference) whereas for others it would be much trickier (which party the Lib Dems back as a second preference is a blog post in itself). I can foresee under AV the media would concentrate on second preferences and little else for those parties who have not got a chance of forming a majority Government in the UK.

As a side note, I personally support an Additional Member System which is a hybrid of First Post The Post and Proportional Representation and obviously don’t believe AV is radical enough to vote in favour of.

Yes to AV Referendum Television Broadcast…

Posted in Politics with tags , on April 12, 2011 by eljmayes

Three arguments from the “Yes” camp are outlined within this campaign broadcast.

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