Archive for Brian Paddick

2012 London Mayoral Prediction…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on April 30, 2012 by eljmayes

Topline First Round Prediction- Johnson 45 Livingstone 39 Paddick 7 Benita 3 Webb 3 Jones 2 Cortiglia 1

Topline Second Round Prediction- Johnson 51 Livingstone 49

Unless Johnson’s vote does not come out/is very soft, I cannot see any other outcome but a very narrow win for the blue team. I see the majority of second preferences going to Livingstone but Johnson should have enough votes from the first round to win in the second round.

Paddick is assured of third, Benita because of her “low key’ campaign should secure fourth and Webb should edge out Jones for fifth. All of which should mean that next time around the Green Party will not be included in the televised debates.

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Good Week, Bad Week 22/04/12…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on April 22, 2012 by eljmayes

Good Week

Ed Miliband- Miliband has had a good week with his party surging ahead in the polls (as much as thirteen points ahead of the Tories with YouGov). This should bode well for Labour in the upcoming Local Elections although losses in Glasgow and/or London would hurt Miliband’s credibility as a leader who can win when it matters.

Boris Johnson- The London Mayor bobbed and weaved to a score draw with Ken Livingstone in the Sky News London Mayoral Debate. At this point in time Johnson looks to be odds on to gain another term as London Mayor.

Brian Paddick- Paddick had a very solid Sky News London Mayoral Debate with some pundits claiming that the Lib Dem candidate won clearly. I wouldn’t have gone that far but it now looks certain that Paddick will easily outpoll his party in the capital.

Siobhan Benita- The Independent London Mayoral candidate’s campaign finally seemed to kick into second gear this week with increased media exposure. This could mean that Benita finishes an impressive fourth in the first round of London Mayoral voting.

Bad Week

David Cameron- Cameron has had a lousy week this week as the Budget continues to unravel, almost a month after it had been delivered. The good news for Cameron is that the Local Elections should draw a line under the Budget to an extent and put the pressure back on Miliband especially if Labour don’t make significant gains.

Nick Clegg- Clegg has had a middling week with the Lib Dem Leader facing the real possibility of a yellow wipeout on May 3rd. It is scant consolation that Clegg currently polls better than Miliband with ComRes therefore.

Ken Livingstone- Livingstone’s time to make a move in the London Mayoral race is quickly running out. He has performed badly in all of the debates so far and unless Johnson trips up epically in the final two weeks I can’t see a feasible scenario in which Livingstone becomes Mayor of London.

Jenny Jones- Jones puzzlingly didn’t show up to the Sky News London Mayoral Debate on Thursday night. Polling suggests it’s possible Jones could finish as low as sixth in the first round of London Mayoral voting.

Brian Paddick 2012 Party Election Broadcast…

Posted in Politics with tags , on April 12, 2012 by eljmayes

Paddick goes on the theme of policing for his Party Election Broadcast.

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