I think so.
Archive for British National Party
Topline First Round Prediction- Johnson 45 Livingstone 39 Paddick 7 Benita 3 Webb 3 Jones 2 Cortiglia 1
Topline Second Round Prediction- Johnson 51 Livingstone 49
Unless Johnson’s vote does not come out/is very soft, I cannot see any other outcome but a very narrow win for the blue team. I see the majority of second preferences going to Livingstone but Johnson should have enough votes from the first round to win in the second round.
Paddick is assured of third, Benita because of her “low key’ campaign should secure fourth and Webb should edge out Jones for fifth. All of which should mean that next time around the Green Party will not be included in the televised debates.
David Cameron- Cameron has had a rather decent if uneventful week. The crisis in Libya seems to be gaining him plaudits from around the world (especially in America) for his leadership against the Gaddafi regime. The Prime Minister’s speech today at his Spring Conference was solid if unspectacular, setting the scene for the budget later this month and for growth in the medium term. The Tories distant third place in Barnsley Central by-election was to be expected and the party has received very little negative press after the result.
Ed Miliband- Miliband has had a very good week because of his party increasing their vote share on their 2010 General Election result in the Barnsley by-election. The leader of the opposition’s trumpeting of the result was to be expected but Miliband must know that he and his party will face the electorate in four years time when the political landscape may be very different.
Dan Jarvis- The former soldier convincingly won the Barnsley by-election and so has had an excellent week. He may wish to save the “Ed Miliband for PM” rhetoric for later on in the Parliamentary cycle however.
Nigel Farage- UKIP finished a strong second in the Barnsley by-election with Farage declaring his party were the new opposition to the Coalition. Whilst it’s a great result for UKIP, the next European Elections are in 2014, so Farage and his party need to not get too ahead of themselves.
Nick Clegg- Clegg has had a terrible week thanks to his party’s result in the Barnsley by-election, with the Lib Dems being beaten into a lowly sixth by an independent candidate and the British National Party. Governments typically do badly in by-elections but the loss of their deposit will prove to be a wake up call to the Lib Dems in my opinion. There has already been talk about keeping the party tacked in to the left, as to make a Coalition with Labour easier in 2015 should that eventuality arise. I think the Clegg should try and keep his party as central as possible as to maximise their chances of getting into Government again (after all a Labour victory isn’t assured this far out from a General Election).
Dominic Carman- Carman, the Lib Dem candidate in Barnsley Central, stated in his post result speech that “he had taken a right kicking”. A early nomination for the understatement of the year right there.
Labour will win the seat by around three thousand votes- Two polls published over the weekend of the 8th/9th January point to a Labour victory of around seven thousand votes (with a similar turnout to the 2010 General Election result). I cannot see Labour doing this well for two reasons- turnout and tactical voting. Turnout should be down on the 2010 General Election result because of many in the constituency not seeing the need for a second election so soon and because of the cold weather. Tactical voting will impact on Labour’s majority in the seat, as Conservative supporters may change their votes to Lib Dem to keep Labour out. Tactical voting is the major factor that could stop the seat being very safe for Labour and being a Labour/Lib Dem marginal.
There will no real resentment to Labour over the Phil Woolas scandal which led to the by-election- The recent VAT rise and the raising of tuition fees will be seen the by the electorate as fresher in their minds therefore negating any resentment towards Labour over Woolas’ case. Debbie Abrahams hasn’t really said a word campaigning in the constituency (at least on camera), a tactic which has made he by-election a referendum on the Coalition and not on what has gone on before with Woolas. Elwyn Watkins has attempted to raise the issue of the Woolas case, but his words do not seem to have gained traction with the constituents of Oldham East and Saddleworth.
The BNP will do badly in the by-election- If Nick Griffin had stood for election in Oldham East and Saddleworth then the BNP may have cemented their place as the fourth placed party in the constituency due to his media prominence. As it stands, the chances of the BNP candidate Derek Adams look to be in tatters, with the party not being allowed into hustings and struggling for canvassers in the constituency. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the BNP being beaten by UKIP and the Green Party in the by-election, perhaps even losing their deposit.
UKIP will do well in the by-election- The definition of doing “well” for UKIP in this by-election would be fourth place. Sentiment in the whole of the country has become more eurosceptic since the bailout of Ireland last year and I feel UKIP will capitalize on disenfranchised voters in the constituency who would usually vote for the three mainstream parties plus the BNP.
The by-election will not change the national picture of politics greatly- The broadcast media (and myself) love a by-election but ultimately barring a Lib Dem win the by-election won’t steer momentum greatly towards one party or away from another. On the January 14th, David Cameron will still be the Prime Minister, Nick Clegg will be the Deputy Prime Minister and Ed Miliband will still have his blank piece of paper devoid of policies.
So, so early I know, but here are my quick thoughts on what may go down in world of politics next year (in a rough chronological order): –
*The VAT rise will lead to increased spending in the first few days of 2011. I doubt Labour will crow about the rise too much next year as Alistair Darling was heavily rumoured to be plotting a similar rise when he was Chancellor.
*The Royal Wedding may give the country a slight economic boost and the Coalition a boost before the local elections a week later.
*The British National Party will finally go under only to replaced by a similar far right party.
*The local elections will prove to be fruitful for Labour, however not as fruitful as they would hope. Expect the Tories and the Liberal Democrats to do badly however, as the smaller parties take local seats from all three of the major parties.
*The Alternative Vote/First Past The Post Referendum will be won by the “No” camp as Ed Miliband will not campaign on the same platform as Nick Clegg. Expect a low turnout and much criticism of the cost of the referendum afterwards from Labour.
*David Laws will make a return to frontline politics.
*Ken Clarke will (sadly) be forced out his role as Justice Secretary by those on the right of his party which will lead to a reshuffle.
*Ed Miliband will unveil the first of his big policy announcements in the Autumn, a reinstatement of the ten pence tax band perhaps?
*The redrawing of the constituency boundaries will enrage Labour, please the Tories and keep the Liberal Democrats indifferent.
*There will be no free vote on repealing the ban on fox hunting next year.
Versus the majority of the country I would hope;). In all seriousness I thought that Griffin didn’t do as well as he would have liked- not helped by the fact that he had no pre-prepared soundbites to fall back on. The consequence of Griffin’s appearance on Question Time may cause a slight jump in the polls for the BNP in the short term, but I suspect that in the long term they will remain at the three percent mark nationally after the media storm has died down. This would mean that his party would face an uphill struggle to get a seat even in Essex, where his party plans to canvass heavily in next year’s General Election. Therefore it is my opinion that the status-quo will remain in regards to the support of the BNP in the next twelve months.
A straight talking Pickles canvasses and talks about some of the issues surrounding the forthcoming European Elections. Maybe a little too gentle to be a briefing about going to “war” though;).