Archive for David Miliband

Good Week, Bad Week 04/03/12…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , on March 4, 2012 by eljmayes

Good Week

Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister has had his usual quiet week ahead of his rather tricky Spring Conference where the Coalition’s NHS reforms will be scrutinised yet futher. Clegg will be heartened that his YouGov approval rating amongst his own supporters has increased significantly, although his personal ratings with all voters are still dire.

Mitt Romney- Romney has the momentum going into Super Tuesday this Wednesday (in the UK). He should become in all but name the GOP Nominee for President this week.

David Miliband- Miliband has irked some in his own party by writing for The Sun on Sunday this week. I genuinely don’t see any issue with Miliband Major writing for The Sun on Sunday as looking inwards certainly will guarantee a Labour defeat in 2015.

Bad Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister’s week was dominated by a story about whether or not he rode a deceased horse. The definition of a slow news week. Aside from equine shenanigans, Cameron will be pleased that Labour are still failing to face up to spending cuts of any ilk.

Ed Miliband- The Leader of the Opposition has had rather stagnant week. He continued with attacks on the Coalition’s NHS Reforms and did little else of note. Miliband’s attacks on the proposed NHS Reforms aren’t proving effective with voters in the topline numbers of opinion polls which must frustrate him immensely. Miliband lack of narrative is clearly hurting Labour at this stage of the Parliament with the public. If Miliband can’t gain any traction soon, I can see a leadership challenge happening before the Summer.

Ed Balls– Balls stated this week that he will not commit his party to changes to tax credits and child benefits outlined by Coalition, further ruining his party’s fragile fiscal credibility in my opinion.

Good Week, Bad Week 05/02/12…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on February 5, 2012 by eljmayes

Good Week

Ed Miliband- The Leader of the Opposition has had a decent week. His responses on  bankers bonuses and on the subject of Europe have caught the Prime Minister off guard. Can Miliband take things out of his “safe zone” however and start winning back floating voters? I’m not so sure. His party voted against the benefits cap this week signaling that Labour aren’t yet ready to take back the initiative on “unsafe”subjects. Another issue for Miliband long term is to rectify is Labour’s terrible ratings on the economy, where they trail the Tories regularly by a ratio of two to one voters in the polls.

Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister dealt with the resignation of Chris Huhne as best as he could, replacing him with the capable Ed Davey.

Mitt Romney- Romney won yet more electoral GOP votes this week, all but assuring the Presidential Nomination. The pressure will be on the other three candidates now to step aside and let Romney take on the incumbent President. The longer the GOP race goes on, the less chance Romney has of unseating Barack Obama.

Bad Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister had an unnerving week as his opposite number scored points on a variety of subjects, the most prevalent being Europe. However, Cameron will be heartened that Labour are still not drawing away in the polls and Miliband still not being able to gain political momentum either within his party or in the country as a whole.

Chris Huhne- Huhne was charged with perverting the course of justice this week and promptly resigned from the Cabinet. There isn’t much more I can say on the matter as the trial is forthcoming.

David Miliband- The elder Miliband bafflingly interjected himself into the political fray this week stating that his party wouldn’t win over voters with a brand of “Reassurance Labour”. Whilst Miliband is entitled to his opinion, his semi regular  interventions aren’t helping his party or more importantly his brother’s leadership.

Good Week, Bad Week 27/11/11…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on November 27, 2011 by eljmayes

Good Week

Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister has had a relatively good week introducing a subsidy for businesses taking on young people. This type of policy is perfect for Clegg to unveil as it fits in with his party’s mantra of social justice. Clegg must still be worried by the Lib Dems dire poll ratings however.

Nigel Farage- The UKIP leader has had a decent week in the polls. His party are breathing down the necks of the Lib Dems in the daily YouGov tracker polls and recorded an eleven percent share in a Survation poll today. Sadly for Farage the European elections are in 2014.

David Miliband- The elder Miliband has been rumoured to make a return to the Shadow Cabinet this week. Such a return could prove controversial but would provide Labour with a recognised “big beast” on their front bench, something which they are lacking at the moment.

Bad Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had a fairly poor week. The country is on the brink of recession and he is facing a series of strikes from the unions. Out with the man in the street he is not doing well. However, the ineptitude of Ed Miliband currently means politically he is doing (fairly) well. Unless public opinion gets behind the strikes I can see Cameron not being damaged politically by them.

Ed Miliband- The Leader of the Opposition is having a terrible time of it recently, although his tales of woe are all self inflicted. Consistent poor performances at Prime Minister’s Questions and not taking a stance on the strike mean Miliband is still not making headway. Miliband needs to come back in the new year with some solid policies and a renewed attitude otherwise I can foresee his party turning on him, almost guaranteeing a Tory victory in 2015 in the process.

Ed Balls- Balls cries at the Antiques Roadshow. Not exactly a conventional way of softening one’s image.

Good Week, Bad Week 11/09/11…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on September 11, 2011 by eljmayes

Good Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had a good if rather uneventful week. Prime Minister’s Questions were a non event thanks to Alistair Darling’s memoirs, The Tories are neck and neck with Labour in the polls and the opposition seems to be getting very divided before their party conference. The story of Darling’s memoirs will eventually go away but clearly there still are two factions in Labour, those who prefer a more left wing approach and those who would prefer the party to hog the centre ground. Cameron knows a left wing Labour party would be nigh on impossible to elect in 2015 so must be happy at the current leadership of Ed Miliband. Worries of a double dip recession and a split over Europe still may prove to be stumbling blocks for the Tories however.

Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister has had the usual quiet week leading into his party conference. Expect the Liberal Democrats to rise in the polls next week, perhaps at the expense of Labour.

Alistair Darling- The former Chancellor’s book is very reserved in tone but quite devastating in meaning. In Darling’s eyes, Gordon Brown (as portrayed  before in other books admittedly) is a control freak, Ed Miliband is a bystander and Ed Balls is “difficult to work with”. “Back From The Brink” will be the talk of Labour’s party conference for sure.

Jack Straw- Straw spearheaded a campaign to outlaw car insurance injury referrals which will now be implemented by the Government. A non partisan campaign which benefits all motorists- kudos to Jack Straw.

Bad Week

Ed Miliband- Miliband has little momentum coming into his party conference at the end of the month- Labour have conceded ground in the polls and half his party doesn’t seem to like him. If Miliband wants to stop being likened to a teenage chess champion he desperately needs to set out a clear vision for Labour for the next three years at this year’s conference and leave the rhetoric behind.

Nadine Dorries- Dorries rambled on for ninety minutes of the health debate earlier this week, taking pot shots at Nick Clegg and Dr Evan Harris. The whole episode was deeply embarrassing for Parliament and her constituents.

Ed Balls- Balls is still banging on about a VAT cut and another bank bonus tax like a broken record. One wonders if any floating voter is listening to him.

David Miliband- Miliband’s performance on Question Time yet again was a Bulleye-esque “Look at what you could have won” kick in the teeth for Labour’s grassroots.

Good Week, Bad Week 19/06/11…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on June 19, 2011 by eljmayes

Good Week

Nick Clegg- Clegg has had a good week. His party’s influence within the Coalition is popular with the voting public and the Lib Dems are poll ratings are recovering (albeit slowly).

Ed Miliband- Miliband has had a mixed week but his performance at Prime Minister’s Questions proved he isn’t likely to come under much pressure from within his party anytime soon. Cleverly selecting a fact and then pressing the Prime Minister on that fact is a useful tactic William Hague often used during his tenure as Leader of the Opposition. It is a tactic that cannot be used too often however. The only major worry for Miliband short term is whether or not he appoints his brother to a role within the Shadow Cabinet in a reshuffle, does he risk opening old wounds or sticking to a weaker team without his brother David?

Michael Forsyth- Lord Forsyth performed well on Question Time in Aberdeen, proving Tories can win over sections of the Scottish public if they present their arguments properly.

Bad Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had a sub par week. His performance at Prime Minister’s Questions was shaky at best and the Coalition’s U-Turns are becoming the norm rather than the exception. A decent outing at Prime Minister’s Questions by Cameron could have put Ed Miliband on the verge of being ousted as leader. As it went down however, Miliband went with a highly emotive issue which the Prime Minister had no real answers to. U-Turns are regrettable for any political leader but at this stage, with Labour still not having any policies to speak of, the damage they are causing in the media short term should not be replicated with the voting public in 2015.

Ed Balls- With the deficit reduction debate seemingly swinging in George Osborne’s favour, Balls announced this week he would like to see a temporary VAT cut to stimulate spending. A very poor strategic move for his party in my opinion.

Danny Alexander- Alexander unveiled the Coalition’s pension reforms this week in a very bland and lackluster fashion when ideally they needed a solid launch.

Alternatives to Ed Miliband…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on June 16, 2011 by eljmayes

Frank Field earlier this week stated that Ed Miliband would hang onto his job as Labour leader as “There are no other alternatives to Ed Miliband”. A ringing endorsement I’m sure you would agree. Let’s have a look at those with a feasible chance of becoming Labour leader, conveniently in three sections- those who would be better than Ed Miliband as Labour leader, those who are on the same level as Ed Miliband as Labour leader, and those who would be worse than Ed Miliband as Labour leader. Please be aware these are my own personal opinions as always, if you disagree please use the comments box below.

Those who would better than Ed Miliband as Labour leader

David Miliband- Ed’s bigger brother is better presentationally and would undoubtedly shift the party to the right if he were to become leader. This would help get valuable media outlets back onside for Labour and give them more scope to concentrate on little issues that seem to catch out Cameron on a regular basis. Whilst I think David is far better than his brother presentationally, he still gives off a slightly awkward vibe in interviews which affects his connection with the voting public. I feel David Miliband won’t stand for the Labour leadership in this Parliament if there were a contest. He would be much better served to stand in 2015 if Labour lose that year’s General Election.

Ed Balls- At his best Ed Balls is a very clever, combative politician who is far better at conveying his messages to the public than Ed Miliband. However, he can come across as slightly condescending (putting it politely) in interviews to the media and would certainly steer the Labour party firmly to the left if he were to become leader. Balls is well liked by the unions (more so than David Miliband in a straight run off) and has to considered as the front runner in any leadership contest should Ed Miliband be ousted in this Parliament.

Yvette Cooper- Cooper is similar Ed Balls presentationally with a combative, no nonsense style at the Despatch Box. I doubt the Shadow Home Secretary would wish to run in any leadership contest, favouring to support her husband to win such a contest.

Andy Burnham– Burnham is again much better than Miliband presentationally, having an easy  going “man of the people” style that endears him to the public. Whether as leader Burnham would shift the party further to the right is to be seen as he doesn’t belong to either the Blair or Brown camp, which may harm his chances in a leadership contest. Much like David Miliband, Burnham would be better served sitting out a leadership contest in this Parliament in my opinion, biding his time until a possible opening in 2015.

Jim Murphy- Murphy has a calm, understated style much like Andy Burnham. He is the only Shadow Cabinet  member currently to be landing significant blows on his opposite number Liam Fox. Murphy seems to be an ideal candidate for the leadership role. The problem is he currently is an MP in Scotland, and therefore a MP who could lose their job if the country was to gain independence for the rest of the UK. It would be foolish for him to stand before the referendum is held and for this reason I can’t rank him as a contender.

Chuka Umunna- Umunna has made waves since being elected at last year’s General Election, being put forward for many media appearances on behalf of the opposition and has a calculated presentational style. Umunna is too young to be taken as a serious contender for the Labour leadership at the present time however in my opinion.

Alan Johnson- Johnson is by far the best candidate Labour could field as leader and would take the party to the right. Unfortunately for the party he will likely step down at the next General Election.

Those who are on the same level as Ed Miliband as Labour leader

John Healey- I have always found Labour’s love for Healey baffling. He isn’t any better than Ed Miliband presentationally and he hasn’t exactly made Andrew Lansley sweat as Shadow Health Secretary, even after his series of u-turns on health reform. Healey would be no better for Labour than Miliband and I doubt he’d run if the Labour leader’s post was available.

Douglas Alexander- Alexander strikes me as a politician who always underperforms in media appearances. He isn’t terrible presentationally, but as he is so close to Ed Miliband I doubt he would run in a leadership election.

Sadiq Khan-  Khan is a relatively astute politician but he doesn’t offer anything radically different to Miliband. Any potential leadership contest would not feature Khan I’d wager.

Harriet Harman- Harman did well as a stand in Labour leader after the General Election but is still a marmite politician, you either love her or you hate her. She seems content in her current role and it would be a shock if she stood for party leader.

Those who would be worse than Ed Miliband as Labour leader

Peter Hain- Hain is terrible presentationally, especially in media appearances. Being Ed Miliband’s closest ally it would seem very strange if he were to stand in any leadership election after his friend’s ousting.

Tessa Jowell– Jowell is essentially a female version of Peter Hain sans tan, poor presentationally with little to endear her to the voting public. She is coming towards the end of her political career and to stand for party leader should the opportunity arise would seem bizarre at this stage.

Liam Byrne- A Blairite, Byrne should be a contender in any leadership election. After his “There is no money left” note however I think he is just happy to be in the Shadow Cabinet currently.

The reason why I have put such prominence on presentational skills in this post is because I believe Cameron will run a presidential campaign in 2015, much like Alex Salmond’s Scottish Election campaign this year. It is essential for Labour to have an able media performer in any General Election campaign. I doubt Ed Miliband can get to Cameron’s level presentationally within four years. At the present time, I rate Ed Miliband’s chances of still being Labour leader at the next General Election fifty-fifty at best.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good Week, Bad Week 12/06/11…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on June 12, 2011 by eljmayes

Good Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister should have had a terrible week but because of other events this week he has had a relatively good one. A decent performance at Prime Minister’s Questions after a couple of u-turns by the Coalition was more to do with the ineptitude of his opponent more than Cameron’s guile, but this week has proved him to be more “Teflon” than Tony Blair.

Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister has had a decent if quiet week, scoring a minor victory with a u-turn from Cameron on the NHS reforms.

David Miliband- This week’s shenanigans have put Miliband Major back in the spotlight for the better or worse of his party. I still cannot see him becoming Leader of the Opposition anytime soon however as he stands little chance of deposing his brother before 2015.

Bad Week

Ed Miliband- Miliband has had an abysmal week as Leader of the Opposition. Leaks about his plot with Ed Balls to oust Tony Blair, a rather negative book about his relationship with his brother and a whispering campaign against his leadership means Miliband looks to be in deep trouble as Labour leader. The major problem for Miliband is he will not have any policies for eighteen months, by which time both local elections and the Mayoral election in London will have been held. If Labour don’t do well next May I think the pressure within the party could make Miliband’s position untenable, and Ed Balls would inevitably ascend to party leader on the union block vote. I rate Ed Miliband’s chances of hanging on as Labour leader until 2015 currently at fifty-fifty.

Andy Burnham- Burnham criticised the Education Secretary Michael Gove about his department’s budget this week, describing it as being in “Chaos”. A very hypocritical stance from Burnham in my opinion given his party’s handling of the economy when they were in Government.

Liam Byrne- Byrne stated this week that “Gordon Brown was a superb Prime Minister”. I’ll let the utter tribalism /and or stupidity of that statement stand on it’s own.

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