Archive for Green Party

2012 London Mayoral Prediction…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on April 30, 2012 by eljmayes

Topline First Round Prediction- Johnson 45 Livingstone 39 Paddick 7 Benita 3 Webb 3 Jones 2 Cortiglia 1

Topline Second Round Prediction- Johnson 51 Livingstone 49

Unless Johnson’s vote does not come out/is very soft, I cannot see any other outcome but a very narrow win for the blue team. I see the majority of second preferences going to Livingstone but Johnson should have enough votes from the first round to win in the second round.

Paddick is assured of third, Benita because of her “low key’ campaign should secure fourth and Webb should edge out Jones for fifth. All of which should mean that next time around the Green Party will not be included in the televised debates.


2012 Local Election Predictions…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , on April 26, 2012 by eljmayes

Quick topline prediction in seats: –

LAB +600 CON -400 LIB DEM -250 OTHERS +50

If Labour do not get near six hundred seats then questions will be asked of Ed Miliband’s leadership given Labour’s sizable lead in all polls. Questions will also be asked of Ed Miliband if Labour lose control of Glasgow Council to the SNP which I think they will do (just). For Labour to call the Local Elections a success they need to take seats across the country including the South and South West, it will not be enough to win seats in their usual strongholds.

The Tories know that they will lose seats to Labour but likely gain a few from the Lib Dems. Both parties in the Coalition will be already looking forward to the Queen’s Speech which should provide a clean break of sorts from the shambles of the Budget.

As for the others UKIP should pick up seats from the three main parties as should the Greens. Respect are fielding twelve candidates in Bradford and I’d be surprised if they don’t take seats from Labour given Galloway’s heroics in Bradford West a few weeks ago. The Nationalists should do well in their respective countries but Plaid Cymru could find the going tough under new far left leadership.

In summary, the pressure is on Labour. With the economy now in recession and both Coalition parties doing badly in the polls they have to have a strong showing to prove that they are a party that is capable of governing again.


Good Week, Bad Week 22/04/12…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on April 22, 2012 by eljmayes

Good Week

Ed Miliband- Miliband has had a good week with his party surging ahead in the polls (as much as thirteen points ahead of the Tories with YouGov). This should bode well for Labour in the upcoming Local Elections although losses in Glasgow and/or London would hurt Miliband’s credibility as a leader who can win when it matters.

Boris Johnson- The London Mayor bobbed and weaved to a score draw with Ken Livingstone in the Sky News London Mayoral Debate. At this point in time Johnson looks to be odds on to gain another term as London Mayor.

Brian Paddick- Paddick had a very solid Sky News London Mayoral Debate with some pundits claiming that the Lib Dem candidate won clearly. I wouldn’t have gone that far but it now looks certain that Paddick will easily outpoll his party in the capital.

Siobhan Benita- The Independent London Mayoral candidate’s campaign finally seemed to kick into second gear this week with increased media exposure. This could mean that Benita finishes an impressive fourth in the first round of London Mayoral voting.

Bad Week

David Cameron- Cameron has had a lousy week this week as the Budget continues to unravel, almost a month after it had been delivered. The good news for Cameron is that the Local Elections should draw a line under the Budget to an extent and put the pressure back on Miliband especially if Labour don’t make significant gains.

Nick Clegg- Clegg has had a middling week with the Lib Dem Leader facing the real possibility of a yellow wipeout on May 3rd. It is scant consolation that Clegg currently polls better than Miliband with ComRes therefore.

Ken Livingstone- Livingstone’s time to make a move in the London Mayoral race is quickly running out. He has performed badly in all of the debates so far and unless Johnson trips up epically in the final two weeks I can’t see a feasible scenario in which Livingstone becomes Mayor of London.

Jenny Jones- Jones puzzlingly didn’t show up to the Sky News London Mayoral Debate on Thursday night. Polling suggests it’s possible Jones could finish as low as sixth in the first round of London Mayoral voting.

Bradford West By-Election Prediction…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , on March 29, 2012 by eljmayes

My quick prediction topline prediction is- LAB by 6k RESPECT CON LIB DEM UKIP GRN

I see Galloway doing well in Bradford West on sheer curiosity alone and the Lib Dems edging out UKIP as their Budget policies have been well received in the past week. Turnout may be as low as thirty five percent as the By-Election campaign has been very short. Anything less than a solid Labour hold will be a major shock in Bradford West.

Northern Irish/Scottish/Welsh Election Predictions…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on May 3, 2011 by eljmayes

Here are some brief thoughts on the upcoming devolved elections in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales: –

In Northern Ireland I predict the Democratic Unionist Party should remain the biggest party in the Assembly with slightly more seats than Sinn Féin. None of the Coalition parties are (in name at least) on the ballot paper so I expect there to be minimal movement in seats from the 2007 result.

In Scotland I predict the Scottish National Party will be the largest party by five to ten seats from Labour. Labour’s campaign has been lackluster and it is possible they could lose seats from their current tally of forty six. If that were to happen Ed Miliband would face questions as to how his party can be so far ahead in the polls nationally but do so poorly in their perceived stronghold of Scotland. The Coalition partners will likely lose seats at the expense of the SNP, Labour and the Green Party but the Tories may do better than expected in the List vote given Annabel Goldie’s popularity. After the results are in I for see the SNP governing as a minority Government without the reliance on as much cross party support to get their policies through because they will have more seats.

In Wales I predict Labour will fall short of a majority by a few seats. I expect Labour to form a minority Government and snub any Coalition with Plaid Cymru as to been seen to show they can deliver a strong recovery for Wales. A “rainbow” Tory led Coalition between the smaller parties in Wales is incredibly unlikely as Plaid Cymru has stated categorically they would not be able to work in partnership with the Conservatives when questioned.

Local Election Predictions…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , on April 21, 2011 by eljmayes

Here are five quick predictions for the upcoming Local Elections on May 5th: –

The Conservatives will do badly as they are defending well over half the council seats in the election- How badly the Tories do is linked in part to the performance of their Coalition partners the Liberal Democrats, and who the public perceive to blame for the cuts. A good night for the Tories would be to keep their losses below the five hundred seat mark but I believe they will end up losing nearer eight hundred seats. David Cameron has been quite visible during the campaign to try and sell his ideas across the country but I doubt his work will pay off come polling day.

The Liberal Democrats will have a terrible night- This prediction is a given. Nick Clegg’s party are doing poorly in the polls and the public’s perception of him isn’t much better. The Lib Dems are defending slightly more seats than Labour but could endure losses on a scale similar to the Tories. Losses of a thousand or so seats would certainly fuel leadership speculation yet again but I suspect the Lib Dems will incur losses of around six hundred seats so Clegg’s position should be safe for the time being.

Labour should top one thousand council seat gains easily- The bare minimum seat gain target for Ed Miliband’s party should be the 566 seat gains Iain Duncan Smith made in the Local Elections in 2003. Labour are coming from a very low base however, defending only seventeen percent of council seats, so they should pass this target with ease. I predict Labour will pick up a lot of disaffected Lib Dem votes plus those who wish to vote tactically to send a message to the Government, so therefore around twelve hundred seat gains would seem reasonable. The only issue with such a giant seat haul for Labour is that they will have more councils under their control which will have to administer the Coalition cuts and may become unpopular throughout their term.

The smaller parties will make gains from both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats- The likes of UKIP, the Green party, and others will make modest gains from the Coalition partners as those who cannot bring themselves to vote for Labour will seek other candidates who they feel will bring change their local wards. I would predict in total the “Others” will make around one hundred gains in total.

The result of the Local Elections will add to the result of the AV Referendum- The AV Referendum result will be known roughly a day later than the Local Election results so the media will devote near enough forty eight hours to both elections. If the No to AV camp wins the Referendum this could curb any momentum (half of) Labour have and provide a “double whammy” to the Lib Dems.

Five Reasons Why I’ll Be Voting No to AV on May 5th…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , on April 18, 2011 by eljmayes

Here are the five main reasons why I will be voting No to AV on May 5th: –

The seat winner does not need to secure fifty percent of the total votes cast under AV- A major pillar of the Yes to AV campaign is that a candidate needs to secure over (or approaching) fifty percent of the total votes cast to win- this simply is not the case as ranking every candidate is not compulsory and votes are “lost” throughout the rounds. Therefore (non compulsory ranking) AV is essentially a top up version of First Past The Post which will create two types of MPs, those who have a majority of the total votes cast in their constituencies and those who do not.

AV will not get rid of safe seats- No voting system from First Past The Post to Proportional Representation abolishes safe seats. Whether MPs are elected in constituencies or by a list system there will always be a core vote for each of the major parties which will ensure a third of seats will be safe. AV would admittedly put more seats “in play” so to speak, but the exact number would be unclear until the boundary review is conducted later in the Parliamentary cycle.

AV isn’t the first step towards PR- Unless Labour and/or the Conservatives decide Proportional Representation is the way forward (which is highly unlikely since they both like being in Government on their own) PR will remain a pipe dream for the smaller parties and the voting system’s supporters. AV being implemented will not bring PR a step closer as isn’t a proportional system.

Counts under AV will take longer- Having several rounds will inevitably make the process of counting votes in certain seats longer, especially if each there are recounts in any round.

Alliances will be formed before the General Election if AV was implemented- Smaller parties’ policies will take a back seat to their second preferences under AV. For certain parties an alliance would be easy to formulate (for example the Green Party would likely back Labour as their second preference) whereas for others it would be much trickier (which party the Lib Dems back as a second preference is a blog post in itself). I can foresee under AV the media would concentrate on second preferences and little else for those parties who have not got a chance of forming a majority Government in the UK.

As a side note, I personally support an Additional Member System which is a hybrid of First Post The Post and Proportional Representation and obviously don’t believe AV is radical enough to vote in favour of.

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