Archive for Ken Livingstone

2012 London Mayoral Prediction…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on April 30, 2012 by eljmayes

Topline First Round Prediction- Johnson 45 Livingstone 39 Paddick 7 Benita 3 Webb 3 Jones 2 Cortiglia 1

Topline Second Round Prediction- Johnson 51 Livingstone 49

Unless Johnson’s vote does not come out/is very soft, I cannot see any other outcome but a very narrow win for the blue team. I see the majority of second preferences going to Livingstone but Johnson should have enough votes from the first round to win in the second round.

Paddick is assured of third, Benita because of her “low key’ campaign should secure fourth and Webb should edge out Jones for fifth. All of which should mean that next time around the Green Party will not be included in the televised debates.

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Good Week, Bad Week 29/04/12…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , on April 29, 2012 by eljmayes

Good Week

Ed Miliband- Miliband has had yet another good week, largely by default. His party are consistently well ahead across the polls, a prominent Cabinet member looks to be on the way out and his number two’s predictions about a double dip recession have rung true. The fact still remains that Labour has no clear narrative or policies three years ahead of a General Election. In the short term this is acceptable although in the long term it is clearly not. Unless the incompetence from the Coalition continues for three solid years Miliband and Labour will need a vision for Britain to win the next General Election.

Ed Balls- Balls has been proved right this week as the country dropped back into recession. Britain should be more like America in the Shadow Chancellor’s eyes, using an addition stimulus to provide growth. Why I don’t feel this stance will work for Labour in the long term is very simple- the public now have (largely) accepted that cuts are necessary and that further spending is folly.

Alan Sugar- Lord Sugar this week spoke out in writing against Ken Livingstone. This move will have some impact on Livingstone’s campaign, casting doubt on whether or not he can rule London for all ethnic groups.

Bad Week

David Cameron- Cameron has had a woeful week. The economy is officially in recession and Jeremy Hunt looks as if he will be exiting the Cabinet very soon, forcing an early summer reshuffle on the Prime Minister. Obviously the recession is incredibly bad news for the Coalition as it’s a tangible story/statistic that can never be erased. The Hunt/Murdoch issue may prove to be more damaging however, as the ghosts of sleaze from the nineties return to haunt the Tories.

Nick Clegg- Clegg has had his usual quiet week soured by his frankly diabolical approval ratings with YouGov.

George Osborne- Osborne may leave the Chancellor’s role in the summer to be replaced by William Hague. If that were to happen, I’d imagine Osborne would become the new Foreign Secretary in straight job swap.

Jeremy Hunt- Hunt as I write this is barely hanging onto his job in the Cabinet. I’d wager by the time I write the next “Good Week, Bad Week” he will have resigned, likely to have been replaced by Hugh Robertson.

Ken Livingstone- Another week goes by without Livingstone declaring his tax returns, compounding his issues with the electorate of trust.

Robert Winston “Ken Livingstone is a Tricky Customer”…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , on April 24, 2012 by eljmayes

Labour Peer and star of their latest PEB is not a fan of Ken Livingstone.

Good Week, Bad Week 22/04/12…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on April 22, 2012 by eljmayes

Good Week

Ed Miliband- Miliband has had a good week with his party surging ahead in the polls (as much as thirteen points ahead of the Tories with YouGov). This should bode well for Labour in the upcoming Local Elections although losses in Glasgow and/or London would hurt Miliband’s credibility as a leader who can win when it matters.

Boris Johnson- The London Mayor bobbed and weaved to a score draw with Ken Livingstone in the Sky News London Mayoral Debate. At this point in time Johnson looks to be odds on to gain another term as London Mayor.

Brian Paddick- Paddick had a very solid Sky News London Mayoral Debate with some pundits claiming that the Lib Dem candidate won clearly. I wouldn’t have gone that far but it now looks certain that Paddick will easily outpoll his party in the capital.

Siobhan Benita- The Independent London Mayoral candidate’s campaign finally seemed to kick into second gear this week with increased media exposure. This could mean that Benita finishes an impressive fourth in the first round of London Mayoral voting.

Bad Week

David Cameron- Cameron has had a lousy week this week as the Budget continues to unravel, almost a month after it had been delivered. The good news for Cameron is that the Local Elections should draw a line under the Budget to an extent and put the pressure back on Miliband especially if Labour don’t make significant gains.

Nick Clegg- Clegg has had a middling week with the Lib Dem Leader facing the real possibility of a yellow wipeout on May 3rd. It is scant consolation that Clegg currently polls better than Miliband with ComRes therefore.

Ken Livingstone- Livingstone’s time to make a move in the London Mayoral race is quickly running out. He has performed badly in all of the debates so far and unless Johnson trips up epically in the final two weeks I can’t see a feasible scenario in which Livingstone becomes Mayor of London.

Jenny Jones- Jones puzzlingly didn’t show up to the Sky News London Mayoral Debate on Thursday night. Polling suggests it’s possible Jones could finish as low as sixth in the first round of London Mayoral voting.

Ken Livingstone 2012 Party Election Broadcast…

Posted in Politics with tags , on April 11, 2012 by eljmayes

Emotional!

Can Ken Livingstone Still Become London Mayor?..

Posted in Broadcasting with tags , , , , , on April 6, 2012 by eljmayes

Short answer “no”. Long answer “perhaps”. For Ken Livingstone to stand a chance of winning at this stage he needs three things to happen: –

Livingstone needs to release his full accounts- If he does not then great chunks of the remaining London Mayoral television debates will focus solely on his tax affairs. This clearly would play into Boris Johnson’s hands who already has said that the election is about “trust”, and with Livingstone’s full accounts remaining unpublished this would back up Johnson’s claim that the former London Mayor is indeed a “f***ing liar”.

Livingstone needs to stop talking about unfunded/wacky promises in the debates- A cut in transport fares. The reinstatement of the Educational Maintenance Allowance. Making London a separate state from the rest of the UK. All are at best highly ambitious and at worst utterly bonkers. Livingstone needs to accept we live in tough fiscal times and that the public simply will not even give a hearing to a candidate who strays from this narrative. The former London Mayor needs to talk about everyday issues and find solutions to them that are fiscally realistic. This is a tough ask given his socialist background but possible given the fact he has actually already been Mayor of London (which a lot of people seem to have totally forgotten about).

Livingstone needs the national polls to show a relatively large lead for Labour- If the national polls start to tighten then the need for Livingstone to win on May 3rd will increase significantly as Ed Miliband’s leadership comes under more scrutiny, heaping pressure on him in turn. Livingstone doesn’t seem to like pressure (who does?) so a solid ten point lead for Labour for a few weeks would allow him a chance to campaign without any such issues. I personally cannot see this happening even with YouGov but it is possible.

If the three scenarios above all play out for Livingstone then he has a moderate chance (around thirty three percent in my opinion) of becoming London Mayor. However, if he carries on with the smoke, mirrors and absurd statements then I can only see one winner on May 3rd, and that is Boris Johnson.

Boris Johnson Refuses to Apologise to Ken Livingstone…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , on April 5, 2012 by eljmayes

And rightly so!

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