Archive for Labour

Eastleigh By-Election Prediction…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , on February 28, 2013 by eljmayes

Liberal Democrat Leader Nick Clegg Visits Eastleigh Ahead Of The Eastleigh By-election

My topline prediction is: –

LIB DEM BY 1K UKIP CON LAB

The Lib Dems should hang on to Eastleigh despite challenges from UKIP and the Tories. UKIP should in edge out the Tories to take second place as they seem to have spent serious money on campaigning in Eastleigh. With the exception of Labour the major parties have fielded very “safe” (read dull) candidates which will ultimately have helped the incumbent Lib Dems. I would predict that the fallout from Eastleigh will not be that great short term as the Tories and Labour both gear up for the Budget. However, if the Tories do not win Eastleigh then the Budget becomes much more important for the blue half of the Coalition and for David Cameron.

Good Week, Bad Week 01/07/12…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , on July 1, 2012 by eljmayes

Good Week

Ed Miliband- Miliband has had a relatively good week. His party are still well ahead in the polls and he has put the Coalition on the back foot over the Libor scandal. That said, cracks do seem to be appearing within the Labour party as a whole. The unions want to drag Labour to left and mooted policies such as the re-nationalisation of railways point that their 2015 manifesto will be not be beside reading for the likes of Tony Blair. As I’ve stated before, divided parties do not win elections and provided Labour can stay relatively together they stand a good chance of gaining the most seats in 2015, whatever political position they choose to take.

Nick Clegg- Clegg has had his usual dull week as per normal. A busier, more media savvy Deputy Prime Minister may be able to bolster his party’s poll ratings in the Autumn.

Bad Week

David Cameron- Cameron has had a half decent week spoilt by his follies over an EU Referendum. The petrol tax deferral was a positive move which showed the country that the Prime Minister was on their side. His lack of leadership over the EU Referendum has shown that Cameron is still worried by his back benchers rebelling however. As with Labour, Cameron needs to take a standpoint and stick to it instead of consistently seeking some sort of middle ground. He is incredibly lucky that the opposition haven’t formulated any policies of note on any subject that matters long term yet.

George Osborne- Although the petrol tax deferral was a positive step it did seem to be forced by the opposition. Osborne may be reshuffled out of his current role if he lets situations like this week’s multiply.

Ed Balls- Ed Balls this week called for an inquiry into the actions of Ed Balls. Truly bizarre.

Chloe Smith- Smith this week found herself on the end of a Paxman mauling. The long term damage to her career should be minimal however.

Good Week, Bad Week 24/06/12…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on June 24, 2012 by eljmayes

Good Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had a relatively good week, with his party slightly improving their position in the polls and a spat with Argentina that played well to the home audience. Cameron’s net personal ratings have improved markedly with YouGov in the past few weeks also, with the Tory leader now ten points or so ahead of Ed Miliband. A concern for the Tories will be how the rise in fuel duty in August affects the public mood. At the current time fuel prices are at their lowest level for months so a three pence rise in duty would not be that noticeable. However if fuel prices rise George Osborne could come under pressure to defer the rise in duty to the winter.

Nick Clegg- Clegg has had his usual quiet week, only being awoken by Michael Gove’s radical education reforms.

Ed Miliband- Miliband’s week hinged on a speech where he addressed the subject of immigration. Whilst I applaud the Labour leader for finally tackling a very difficult subject for his party, the speech did seem to hint that Labour would only tinker with the current status quo. Miliband needs to be bolder on immigration than the Coalition to renew trust with the working class and those aspirational voters who deserted Labour in 2010.

Bad Week

Harriet Harman- Harman was absolutely schooled at (stand in) Prime Minister’s Questions by William Hague this week. Performances of this ilk will make some in Labour party wonder why Harman is still Deputy Leader after five long years in her role.

Andy Burnham- Burnham seemed to have a lackluster performance substance wise on Question Time this week. That said, presentationally Burnham is streets ahead of  of nearly everyone in the Labour party currently.

Jimmy Carr- Carr was rumbled this week for tax avoidance. The new 737 will have to wait therefore.

Good Week, Bad Week 17/06/12…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on June 17, 2012 by eljmayes

Good Week

Ed Miliband- Miliband has had a good week, with his party still ahead in the polls by a significant margin and a decent performance at Leveson. Issues do seem to arising with the right wing of Labour however, with unions calling for the (Blairite) Progress group to be expelled from the movement. If Progress was expelled from the Labour movement it would almost certainly alienate a large chunk of the activist base (and delight the other large chunk). Therefore Miliband needs to do everything humanly possible to keep Progress inside the movement as divided parties historically do not win elections.

Nick Clegg- Clegg has had his usual quiet week with his appearance at Leveson being largely unreported.

Jon Cruddas- Labour’s new policy guru this week released his vision for Labour to regain power. Cruddas has formulated a list of largely sensible if left wing draft policies. Cruddas is one of the most underutilized members of the opposition and Labour really should be putting him forward for more media appearances in my opinion.

Bad Week

David Cameron- Cameron has had a relatively dull week only blighted only by his party’s woeful poll ratings. Leveson was slightly embarrassing for the Prime Minister but certainly not as bad as it could have been. The Tories (and to a lesser extent the Lib Dems) clearly wish the Sumer Recess would hurry up to stem some of the political pain caused by the Budget back in March.

Gordon Brown- Brown at Leveson stated that he did not know of briefings against the then Prime Minister Tony Blair by his “colleagues”.  His statements were plausible but not at all believeable. At this time Brown is of no real use to Labour, in fact I would say he is a hinderance to the party as a whole.

Emily Thornberry- The usually half decent media performer Thornberry was caught off guard this week on Question Time by her party’s blank sheet of policies on the subject of immigration.

Tony Blair Confronted At The Leveson Inquiry…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , on May 28, 2012 by eljmayes

Tony Blair called a “War Criminal” at Leveson.

Good Week, Bad Week 27/05/12…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , on May 27, 2012 by eljmayes

Good Week

Ed Miliband- Miliband has had yet another low key week this week with his party still well ahead in the polls. Miliband’s personal ratings are just ahead of the Prime Minister’s but are still in minus territory. I suspect Labour and Miliband will carry on their good run of form until the party conference season in the Autumn, where much more scrutiny will be heaped on the opposition.

Nick Clegg- Clegg has had his usual dull week. Perhaps he should have been home for the street party thrown by UK Uncut for it to have been livelier.

Ed Balls- Balls succeeded in riling the Prime Minister so much this week that he called him a “muttering idiot”. I doubt the remark will have any real long term impact for either side however.

Bad Week

David Cameron- A slightly better this week for the Prime Minister but still it seems that he and the entire Conservative party can’t wait for the Summer break to come. A reshuffle before the break would signal intent on Cameron’s part but it’s not without it’s risks. The Jeremy Hunt situation has complicated reshuffle plans and Cameron must be wishing that by the end of next week he will be in a position to have a fresh team for the Autumn.

Sayeeda Warsi- Details of Warsi’s accommodation blunder are still sketchy but clearly she looks to heading out of the Cabinet. If Warsi quit Cabinet it would look infinitely better than if she had to be reshuffled out of Cabinet.

Alex Salmond- Salmond was deeply unimpressive at the launch of the “Yes” campaign for Scottish Independence. I feel that he certainly was met his match in Alistair Darling.

Good Week, Bad Week 20/05/12…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on May 20, 2012 by eljmayes

Image

Good Week

Ed Miliband- The Labour leader has had a good week, mainly due to his party’s poll ratings which are consistently better than the Tories by around ten percentage points. Miliband is also now ahead of Cameron in leadership ratings across the polling companies. The only real worry for Miliband short term is that the Coalition somehow regains the initiative politically and his poll leads evaporate quickly, proving that they were soft. Personally I cannot see this happening before the Summer but it still is a distinct possibility.

Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister had his usual low key week this week with his only highlight being his welcoming of the Olympic Flame to Britain from Greece.

Vince Cable- Cable this week secured many jobs this week by negotiating a deal with General Motors to  build the new Astra at Ellesmere Port. More actions like this could secure his own role within the Cabinet.

Boris Johnson- The Mayor of London looked at home in Greece this week as he collected the Olympic Flame with Sebastian Coe and (Sir) David Beckham.

Bad Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had yet another poor week as the Budget hangover continues for the Coalition. Cameron has two choices going forward short term, he can either be bold justifying his policies in the broadcast media or he can simply take it “easy” on policy until after the Summer recess. With a General Election three years away one suspects he will choose the latter option.

Ron Paul- Paul this week suspended his GOP Nomination campaign effectively making Mitt Romney the Republican candidate for President in 2012.

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