My US Election Prediction in map form courtesy of NBC.
Archive for Mitt Romney
My topline prediction is- OBAMA 290 ROMNEY 248
Although Romney will likely take Florida, I don’t see him taking Ohio, Virginia or Wisconsin. If Obama takes those three States, he will almost certainly be re-elected as President. Obama’s better ground game will be crucial in returning him to office as well.
As for the popular vote, I see it as a dead heat. Large amounts of the East Coast will probably stay at home due to disenfranchisement with the incumbent due to to Superstorm Sandy. This will mean that the Democrat vote will be suppressed somewhat.
This election in numerical terms will nigh on be a repeat of 2004 and not as close (at least in Electoral College Votes) as 2000.
Who seemed to have morphed into a chair. Truly baffling stuff.
Ed Miliband- The Labour leader has had a good week, mainly due to his party’s poll ratings which are consistently better than the Tories by around ten percentage points. Miliband is also now ahead of Cameron in leadership ratings across the polling companies. The only real worry for Miliband short term is that the Coalition somehow regains the initiative politically and his poll leads evaporate quickly, proving that they were soft. Personally I cannot see this happening before the Summer but it still is a distinct possibility.
Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister had his usual low key week this week with his only highlight being his welcoming of the Olympic Flame to Britain from Greece.
Vince Cable- Cable this week secured many jobs this week by negotiating a deal with General Motors to build the new Astra at Ellesmere Port. More actions like this could secure his own role within the Cabinet.
Boris Johnson- The Mayor of London looked at home in Greece this week as he collected the Olympic Flame with Sebastian Coe and (Sir) David Beckham.
David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had yet another poor week as the Budget hangover continues for the Coalition. Cameron has two choices going forward short term, he can either be bold justifying his policies in the broadcast media or he can simply take it “easy” on policy until after the Summer recess. With a General Election three years away one suspects he will choose the latter option.
Ron Paul- Paul this week suspended his GOP Nomination campaign effectively making Mitt Romney the Republican candidate for President in 2012.
Beyond brilliant. Strong themes.
David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had a very good week with his visit to America being seen as a success by most commentators. Cameron will also be heartened by fact that Ed Miliband hasn’t made any political capital ahead of next week’s Budget and his party’s poll ratings are steady across the board at around thirty seven percent.
Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister got the rare opportunity to take the reigns for Prime Minister’s Questions and was in good form after a slow start. In the upcoming Budget the personal tax allowance looks as if it will be raised to around nine thousand pounds which will provide Clegg with a chance to please his own party faithful.
George Osborne- Osborne has had a relatively good week ahead of the Budget which will likely see him cutting of the top rate of tax and relaxed Sunday trading regulations during the Summer. Both policies are politically divisive however, so the Chancellor needs to present them in the correct manner to avoid attacks from Labour. No easy task given the financial state the country is in.
Ed Miliband- The Labour Leader has had a pretty terrible week. He failed to gain traction ahead of the Budget, had to answer questions about his dealings with a Hull based tycoon and watched as Barack Obama embraced David Cameron in Washington. Miliband’s personal ratings are dire with his own supporters as well, with a record low net score of minus seven with YouGov. As I say nigh on every week, Labour needs a compelling narrative pronto. Miliband’s Budget response this week will be pivotal to his party’s prospects short term as election season looms.
Harriet Harman- Harman this week had a lackluster at Prime Minister’s Questions and then totally “forgot” how much Labour’s bankers bonus tax would raise. This may have reinforced the notion that Labour cannot be trusted managing the economy with the electorate.
Rick Santorum- Newt Gingrich stayed in the GOP Presidential Race this week impacting on Santorum’s chances of beating Romney for the Republican Nomination.
Ed Miliband- The Leader of the Opposition has had a good week on balance. Although Miliband had a shocker in a radio interview early in the week, the Coalition are still faltering with the proposed NHS Reforms so the Labour Leader’s attacks finally seem to be paying off. Labour’s poll lead with YouGov are stabilising at five percent which must also please Miliband greatly. After the NHS Bill goes through Labour’s next priority will likely be Police numbers before the Budget at the end of the month.
Yvette Cooper- Cooper (finally) is effectively attacking the Coalition on the issue of Police numbers. This should prove fertile ground for Labour in the short term but close to an election one wonders if the voting public may question how the opposition would raise Police numbers without the need for raising taxes.
Boris Johnson- The Mayor of London has had a good week by doing absolutely nothing politically, allowing Ken Livingstone to get himself into trouble over his tax affairs.
David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had a bad week due to the NHS Reforms being in the spotlight for a fourth straight week. Cameron must be hoping that the bill goes through without issue and that the political debate moves onto the Budget as soon as possible.
Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister this week has been getting himself into a tangle over the NHS Reforms and taxation within his own party. The NHS Reforms are now neither backed or opposed by the Lib Dems as a whole and the prospect of “tycoon tax” seems baffling. Whilst I accept that Clegg needs to draw up a separate narrative for the Lib Dems heading into 2015, he needs such a narrative to be bold and above all else decisive. The Lib Dem Leader cannot afford to be labeled as a fence sitter come the next General Election in my opinion.
Newt Gingrich- Gingrich is widely expected to leave the GOP Race next week. Such a move would undoubtedly prolong the fight between Romney and Santorum yet further which would make Barack Obama a very happy man indeed.