Archive for Newt Gingrich

Good Week, Bad Week 18/03/12…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on March 18, 2012 by eljmayes

Good Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had a very good week with his visit to America being seen as a success by most commentators. Cameron will also be heartened by fact that Ed Miliband hasn’t made any political capital ahead of next week’s Budget and his party’s poll ratings are steady across the board at around thirty seven percent.

Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister got the rare opportunity to take the reigns for Prime Minister’s Questions and was in good form after a slow start. In the upcoming Budget the personal tax allowance looks as if it will be raised to around nine thousand pounds which will provide Clegg with a chance to please his own party faithful.

George Osborne- Osborne has had a relatively good week ahead of the Budget which will likely see him cutting of the top rate of tax and relaxed Sunday trading regulations during the Summer. Both policies are politically divisive however, so the Chancellor needs to present them in the correct manner to avoid attacks from Labour. No easy task given the financial state the country is in.

Bad Week

Ed Miliband- The Labour Leader has had a pretty terrible week. He failed to gain traction ahead of the Budget, had to answer questions about his dealings with a Hull based tycoon and watched as Barack Obama embraced David Cameron in Washington. Miliband’s personal ratings are dire with his own supporters as well, with a record low net score of minus seven with YouGov. As I say nigh on every week, Labour needs a compelling narrative pronto. Miliband’s Budget response this week will be pivotal to his party’s prospects short term as election season looms.

Harriet Harman- Harman this week had a lackluster at Prime Minister’s Questions and then totally “forgot” how much Labour’s bankers bonus tax would raise. This may have reinforced the notion that Labour cannot be trusted managing the economy with the electorate.

Rick Santorum- Newt Gingrich stayed in the GOP Presidential Race this week impacting on Santorum’s chances of beating Romney for the Republican Nomination.

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Good Week, Bad Week 11/03/12…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on March 11, 2012 by eljmayes

Good Week

Ed Miliband- The Leader of the Opposition has had a good week on balance. Although Miliband had a shocker in a radio interview early in the week, the Coalition are still faltering with the proposed NHS Reforms so the Labour Leader’s attacks finally seem to be paying off. Labour’s poll lead with YouGov are stabilising at five percent which must also please Miliband greatly. After the NHS Bill goes through Labour’s next priority will likely be Police numbers before the Budget at the end of the month.

Yvette Cooper- Cooper (finally) is effectively attacking the Coalition on the issue of Police numbers. This should prove fertile ground for Labour in the short term but close to an election one wonders if the voting public may question how the opposition would raise Police numbers without the need for raising taxes.

Boris Johnson- The Mayor of London has had a good week by doing absolutely nothing politically, allowing Ken Livingstone to get himself into trouble over his tax affairs.

Bad Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had a bad week due to the NHS Reforms being in the spotlight for a fourth straight week. Cameron must be hoping that the bill goes through without issue and that the political debate moves onto the Budget as soon as possible.

Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister this week has been getting himself into a tangle over the NHS Reforms and taxation within his own party. The NHS Reforms are now neither backed or opposed by the Lib Dems as a whole and the prospect of “tycoon tax” seems baffling. Whilst I accept that Clegg needs to draw up a separate narrative for the Lib Dems heading into 2015, he needs such a narrative to be bold and above all else decisive. The Lib Dem Leader cannot afford to be labeled as a fence sitter come the next General Election in my opinion.

Newt Gingrich- Gingrich is widely expected to leave the GOP Race next week. Such a move would undoubtedly prolong the fight between Romney and Santorum yet further which would make Barack Obama a very happy man indeed.

Good Week, Bad Week 12/02/12…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on February 12, 2012 by eljmayes

Good Week

Ed Miliband- The Leader of the Opposition has had a very good week turning up the pressure on the Coalition’s Health Reforms. Miliband’s personal ratings have improved slightly too, although there is no real sign that the NHS Bill is hurting David Cameron’s personal ratings. Labour and Miliband must try to provide a narrative long term in which to slot these victories into otherwise their momentum will be lost however.

Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister has had an unspectacular week with the only highlight being a solid performance at Deputy Prime Minister’s Questions.

Rick Santorum- Santorum has had a great week, winning caucuses and leading in national polls. Can he challenge Romney for the GOP nomination? Doubtful in my opinion given Romney’s large war chest and his slightly more palatable views on social issues.

Bad Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had an awful week due to his proposed NHS Reforms. The issue for the Tories (and the Coalition as a whole) is that the NHS Reforms aren’t explainable to the public in a concise manner, leaving them open to attack from Labour. I doubt Cameron will sack Andrew Lansley immediately but in any subsequent reshuffle he has to be a near certainty to leave the Cabinet. Cameron will be heartened that even though he has had a bad week his party’s ratings with YouGov are stable, neck and neck with Labour.

Andrew Lansley- Lansley has come under fire for his NHS Reforms this week. Whether or not he stays in his job is largely up to the NHS Bill’s progress. If it is voted through without incident I can see Lansley staying until the summer. If the bill is amended much more I can see Lansley coming under increased pressure to resign from the Cabinet.

Newt Gingrich- Gingrich is coming under increasing pressure to pull out of the GOP race given his dismal poll ratings. I expect him to pull out within a month if his polling doesn’t start matching current second place holder Rick Santorum.

My Political Predictions For 2012…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on December 28, 2011 by eljmayes

Here are my ten quick political predictions for 2012 in some sort of a chronological order: –

*Mitt Romney will win the Republican Nomination for President after a long protracted battle with Newt Gingrich.

*Greece will exit the Euro but the single currency will remain for 2012 at least.

*Boris Johnson will beat Ken Livingstone to be re-elected Mayor of London in an ill tempered campaign.

*A challenge to Ed Miliband’s leadership will come after the London Mayoral campaign, but no formal contest will be held. Miliband will hang onto the Labour leadership throughout 2012 as the party struggles to find a successor.

*Chris Huhne will finally exit the Cabinet after a falling out with his Lib Dem collegues.

*Nick Clegg will start to formulate a few clear Lib Dem policies in a bid to distance his party from the Tories ahead of 2015.

*Barack Obama will be re-elected as American President by a decent sized margin.

*David Laws will return to the cabinet in a social brief.

*Nick Boles will be promoted to the Cabinet, possibly replacing Chris Huhne as Energy Secretary.

*Ed Miliband’s approval ratings will go lower than former Tory Leader Iain Duncan Smith’s approval ratings at their lowest ebb.

Good Week, Bad Week 04/12/11…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on December 4, 2011 by eljmayes

Good Week

Nick Clegg- A typically quiet week for the Deputy Prime Minister, looking like a bystander whilst the Autumn Statement was delivered. The Lib Dems are doing slightly better in the polls recently but still would lose a projected half of their MPs if a General Election was held tomorrow.

Newt Gingrich- Gingrich has had a very good week, topping numerous GOP polls by a significant margin. My gut feeling that he will not be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012, as he is clearly less electable than the younger Mitt Romney in the eyes of the American people.

Jeremy Clarkson- Clarkson’s highly controversial comments on The One Show this week have meant his new DVD is selling better than predicted.

Bad Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had a terrible week as it looks almost certain the UK will slip back into recession next year. As I have stated before, Cameron has only got to beat in 2015 what’s in front of him in the guise of Ed Miliband. A recession does complicate his election strategy in 2015- does Cameron call for faster cuts or keep the status quo? I’d say the latter at this point.

Ed Miliband- It should be so easy for The Leader of the Opposition at the moment. Whilst Miliband had a decent outing at Prime Minister’s Questions this week, his “Five Point Plan” for jobs and growth has not gained the traction he would have liked. Simply put, Labour need to understand cuts have to be made across the board without spending money the country does not have. Any further spending “plans” would hurt Labour with voters as the debate has moved on from whether or not cuts need to made. Miliband and Balls are polling woefully as a duo and I’d wager one of Labour’s top team will not be there in 2015.

George Osborne- The Chancellor had to backtrack on his commitment to eradicate the deficit within five years this week. This was disappointing for Osborne the politician as broken promises will not help his leadership ambitions with the Tory Party faithful. The need for further spending cuts going into an election may help the party to be victorious over Labour however.

Ed Balls- The Shadow Chancellor landed some decent blows this week in light of the dire economic outlook. However Balls at this point is seen by many in his party as a liability that it may be him who leaves the Shadow Cabinet before Ed Miliband.

Herman Cain- Cain dropped out of the GOP race this week, much to the disappointment of Pokemon lovers everywhere.

 

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