Archive for UK Independence Party

Eastleigh By-Election Prediction…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , on February 28, 2013 by eljmayes

Liberal Democrat Leader Nick Clegg Visits Eastleigh Ahead Of The Eastleigh By-election

My topline prediction is: –


The Lib Dems should hang on to Eastleigh despite challenges from UKIP and the Tories. UKIP should in edge out the Tories to take second place as they seem to have spent serious money on campaigning in Eastleigh. With the exception of Labour the major parties have fielded very “safe” (read dull) candidates which will ultimately have helped the incumbent Lib Dems. I would predict that the fallout from Eastleigh will not be that great short term as the Tories and Labour both gear up for the Budget. However, if the Tories do not win Eastleigh then the Budget becomes much more important for the blue half of the Coalition and for David Cameron.


Could Baroness Warsi’s UKIP/BNP Comments Seal Her Fate?..

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , on May 4, 2012 by eljmayes

I think so.

2012 London Mayoral Prediction…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on April 30, 2012 by eljmayes

Topline First Round Prediction- Johnson 45 Livingstone 39 Paddick 7 Benita 3 Webb 3 Jones 2 Cortiglia 1

Topline Second Round Prediction- Johnson 51 Livingstone 49

Unless Johnson’s vote does not come out/is very soft, I cannot see any other outcome but a very narrow win for the blue team. I see the majority of second preferences going to Livingstone but Johnson should have enough votes from the first round to win in the second round.

Paddick is assured of third, Benita because of her “low key’ campaign should secure fourth and Webb should edge out Jones for fifth. All of which should mean that next time around the Green Party will not be included in the televised debates.

2012 Local Election Predictions…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , on April 26, 2012 by eljmayes

Quick topline prediction in seats: –

LAB +600 CON -400 LIB DEM -250 OTHERS +50

If Labour do not get near six hundred seats then questions will be asked of Ed Miliband’s leadership given Labour’s sizable lead in all polls. Questions will also be asked of Ed Miliband if Labour lose control of Glasgow Council to the SNP which I think they will do (just). For Labour to call the Local Elections a success they need to take seats across the country including the South and South West, it will not be enough to win seats in their usual strongholds.

The Tories know that they will lose seats to Labour but likely gain a few from the Lib Dems. Both parties in the Coalition will be already looking forward to the Queen’s Speech which should provide a clean break of sorts from the shambles of the Budget.

As for the others UKIP should pick up seats from the three main parties as should the Greens. Respect are fielding twelve candidates in Bradford and I’d be surprised if they don’t take seats from Labour given Galloway’s heroics in Bradford West a few weeks ago. The Nationalists should do well in their respective countries but Plaid Cymru could find the going tough under new far left leadership.

In summary, the pressure is on Labour. With the economy now in recession and both Coalition parties doing badly in the polls they have to have a strong showing to prove that they are a party that is capable of governing again.


Bradford West By-Election Prediction…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , on March 29, 2012 by eljmayes

My quick prediction topline prediction is- LAB by 6k RESPECT CON LIB DEM UKIP GRN

I see Galloway doing well in Bradford West on sheer curiosity alone and the Lib Dems edging out UKIP as their Budget policies have been well received in the past week. Turnout may be as low as thirty five percent as the By-Election campaign has been very short. Anything less than a solid Labour hold will be a major shock in Bradford West.

Good Week, Bad Week 27/11/11…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on November 27, 2011 by eljmayes

Good Week

Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister has had a relatively good week introducing a subsidy for businesses taking on young people. This type of policy is perfect for Clegg to unveil as it fits in with his party’s mantra of social justice. Clegg must still be worried by the Lib Dems dire poll ratings however.

Nigel Farage- The UKIP leader has had a decent week in the polls. His party are breathing down the necks of the Lib Dems in the daily YouGov tracker polls and recorded an eleven percent share in a Survation poll today. Sadly for Farage the European elections are in 2014.

David Miliband- The elder Miliband has been rumoured to make a return to the Shadow Cabinet this week. Such a return could prove controversial but would provide Labour with a recognised “big beast” on their front bench, something which they are lacking at the moment.

Bad Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had a fairly poor week. The country is on the brink of recession and he is facing a series of strikes from the unions. Out with the man in the street he is not doing well. However, the ineptitude of Ed Miliband currently means politically he is doing (fairly) well. Unless public opinion gets behind the strikes I can see Cameron not being damaged politically by them.

Ed Miliband- The Leader of the Opposition is having a terrible time of it recently, although his tales of woe are all self inflicted. Consistent poor performances at Prime Minister’s Questions and not taking a stance on the strike mean Miliband is still not making headway. Miliband needs to come back in the new year with some solid policies and a renewed attitude otherwise I can foresee his party turning on him, almost guaranteeing a Tory victory in 2015 in the process.

Ed Balls- Balls cries at the Antiques Roadshow. Not exactly a conventional way of softening one’s image.

Good Week, Bad Week 13/11/11…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on November 14, 2011 by eljmayes

Good Week

Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister has done very little yet again this week, apart from seeing his party’s YouGov poll rating plunge to within a percentage point of UKIP.

Mario Monti- Monti, a technocrat, became Italian Prime Minister. He is likely to govern only for a few months before elections are held, with his principle mission to be to stabilise the country’s finances and to appease the bond markets.

Bad Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had a rather dull week. An uninspiring outing at Prime Minister’s Questions plus fears over immigration has seen a slight drop in the polls for the Tories. The only consolation for Cameron currently is Ed Miliband is doing so terribly as Leader of the Opposition.

Ed Miliband- The Leader of the Opposition is becoming a bit of bandwagon jumper. A prime example of Miliband’s bandwagon jumping was his criticism of Newcastle United’s Stadium being renamed. When a politician does this it not only shows opportunism it also shows he has very few policies to showcase. Miliband’s position is stable at the current time but with strikes on the horizon I can see a “Yvette Cooper For Labour Leader” campaign beginning before Christmas.

Theresa May- The Home Secretary doesn’t seem to be totally in control of her department at the moment. I predict if further revelations break regarding immigration May will be reshuffled out of her position in favour of Damian Green.

Silvio Berlusconi- Berlusconi finally left office this week- don’t rule out a comeback however!

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