Good Week, Bad Week 24/06/12…

Good Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had a relatively good week, with his party slightly improving their position in the polls and a spat with Argentina that played well to the home audience. Cameron’s net personal ratings have improved markedly with YouGov in the past few weeks also, with the Tory leader now ten points or so ahead of Ed Miliband. A concern for the Tories will be how the rise in fuel duty in August affects the public mood. At the current time fuel prices are at their lowest level for months so a three pence rise in duty would not be that noticeable. However if fuel prices rise George Osborne could come under pressure to defer the rise in duty to the winter.

Nick Clegg- Clegg has had his usual quiet week, only being awoken by Michael Gove’s radical education reforms.

Ed Miliband- Miliband’s week hinged on a speech where he addressed the subject of immigration. Whilst I applaud the Labour leader for finally tackling a very difficult subject for his party, the speech did seem to hint that Labour would only tinker with the current status quo. Miliband needs to be bolder on immigration than the Coalition to renew trust with the working class and those aspirational voters who deserted Labour in 2010.

Bad Week

Harriet Harman- Harman was absolutely schooled at (stand in) Prime Minister’s Questions by William Hague this week. Performances of this ilk will make some in Labour party wonder why Harman is still Deputy Leader after five long years in her role.

Andy Burnham- Burnham seemed to have a lackluster performance substance wise on Question Time this week. That said, presentationally Burnham is streets ahead of  of nearly everyone in the Labour party currently.

Jimmy Carr- Carr was rumbled this week for tax avoidance. The new 737 will have to wait therefore.

Good Week, Bad Week 29/04/12…

Good Week

Ed Miliband- Miliband has had yet another good week, largely by default. His party are consistently well ahead across the polls, a prominent Cabinet member looks to be on the way out and his number two’s predictions about a double dip recession have rung true. The fact still remains that Labour has no clear narrative or policies three years ahead of a General Election. In the short term this is acceptable although in the long term it is clearly not. Unless the incompetence from the Coalition continues for three solid years Miliband and Labour will need a vision for Britain to win the next General Election.

Ed Balls- Balls has been proved right this week as the country dropped back into recession. Britain should be more like America in the Shadow Chancellor’s eyes, using an addition stimulus to provide growth. Why I don’t feel this stance will work for Labour in the long term is very simple- the public now have (largely) accepted that cuts are necessary and that further spending is folly.

Alan Sugar- Lord Sugar this week spoke out in writing against Ken Livingstone. This move will have some impact on Livingstone’s campaign, casting doubt on whether or not he can rule London for all ethnic groups.

Bad Week

David Cameron- Cameron has had a woeful week. The economy is officially in recession and Jeremy Hunt looks as if he will be exiting the Cabinet very soon, forcing an early summer reshuffle on the Prime Minister. Obviously the recession is incredibly bad news for the Coalition as it’s a tangible story/statistic that can never be erased. The Hunt/Murdoch issue may prove to be more damaging however, as the ghosts of sleaze from the nineties return to haunt the Tories.

Nick Clegg- Clegg has had his usual quiet week soured by his frankly diabolical approval ratings with YouGov.

George Osborne- Osborne may leave the Chancellor’s role in the summer to be replaced by William Hague. If that were to happen, I’d imagine Osborne would become the new Foreign Secretary in straight job swap.

Jeremy Hunt- Hunt as I write this is barely hanging onto his job in the Cabinet. I’d wager by the time I write the next “Good Week, Bad Week” he will have resigned, likely to have been replaced by Hugh Robertson.

Ken Livingstone- Another week goes by without Livingstone declaring his tax returns, compounding his issues with the electorate of trust.

Good Week, Bad Week 22/04/12…

Good Week

Ed Miliband- Miliband has had a good week with his party surging ahead in the polls (as much as thirteen points ahead of the Tories with YouGov). This should bode well for Labour in the upcoming Local Elections although losses in Glasgow and/or London would hurt Miliband’s credibility as a leader who can win when it matters.

Boris Johnson- The London Mayor bobbed and weaved to a score draw with Ken Livingstone in the Sky News London Mayoral Debate. At this point in time Johnson looks to be odds on to gain another term as London Mayor.

Brian Paddick- Paddick had a very solid Sky News London Mayoral Debate with some pundits claiming that the Lib Dem candidate won clearly. I wouldn’t have gone that far but it now looks certain that Paddick will easily outpoll his party in the capital.

Siobhan Benita- The Independent London Mayoral candidate’s campaign finally seemed to kick into second gear this week with increased media exposure. This could mean that Benita finishes an impressive fourth in the first round of London Mayoral voting.

Bad Week

David Cameron- Cameron has had a lousy week this week as the Budget continues to unravel, almost a month after it had been delivered. The good news for Cameron is that the Local Elections should draw a line under the Budget to an extent and put the pressure back on Miliband especially if Labour don’t make significant gains.

Nick Clegg- Clegg has had a middling week with the Lib Dem Leader facing the real possibility of a yellow wipeout on May 3rd. It is scant consolation that Clegg currently polls better than Miliband with ComRes therefore.

Ken Livingstone- Livingstone’s time to make a move in the London Mayoral race is quickly running out. He has performed badly in all of the debates so far and unless Johnson trips up epically in the final two weeks I can’t see a feasible scenario in which Livingstone becomes Mayor of London.

Jenny Jones- Jones puzzlingly didn’t show up to the Sky News London Mayoral Debate on Thursday night. Polling suggests it’s possible Jones could finish as low as sixth in the first round of London Mayoral voting.

Can Ken Livingstone Still Become London Mayor?..

Short answer “no”. Long answer “perhaps”. For Ken Livingstone to stand a chance of winning at this stage he needs three things to happen: –

Livingstone needs to release his full accounts- If he does not then great chunks of the remaining London Mayoral television debates will focus solely on his tax affairs. This clearly would play into Boris Johnson’s hands who already has said that the election is about “trust”, and with Livingstone’s full accounts remaining unpublished this would back up Johnson’s claim that the former London Mayor is indeed a “f***ing liar”.

Livingstone needs to stop talking about unfunded/wacky promises in the debates- A cut in transport fares. The reinstatement of the Educational Maintenance Allowance. Making London a separate state from the rest of the UK. All are at best highly ambitious and at worst utterly bonkers. Livingstone needs to accept we live in tough fiscal times and that the public simply will not even give a hearing to a candidate who strays from this narrative. The former London Mayor needs to talk about everyday issues and find solutions to them that are fiscally realistic. This is a tough ask given his socialist background but possible given the fact he has actually already been Mayor of London (which a lot of people seem to have totally forgotten about).

Livingstone needs the national polls to show a relatively large lead for Labour- If the national polls start to tighten then the need for Livingstone to win on May 3rd will increase significantly as Ed Miliband’s leadership comes under more scrutiny, heaping pressure on him in turn. Livingstone doesn’t seem to like pressure (who does?) so a solid ten point lead for Labour for a few weeks would allow him a chance to campaign without any such issues. I personally cannot see this happening even with YouGov but it is possible.

If the three scenarios above all play out for Livingstone then he has a moderate chance (around thirty three percent in my opinion) of becoming London Mayor. However, if he carries on with the smoke, mirrors and absurd statements then I can only see one winner on May 3rd, and that is Boris Johnson.

Good Week, Bad Week 18/03/12…

Good Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had a very good week with his visit to America being seen as a success by most commentators. Cameron will also be heartened by fact that Ed Miliband hasn’t made any political capital ahead of next week’s Budget and his party’s poll ratings are steady across the board at around thirty seven percent.

Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister got the rare opportunity to take the reigns for Prime Minister’s Questions and was in good form after a slow start. In the upcoming Budget the personal tax allowance looks as if it will be raised to around nine thousand pounds which will provide Clegg with a chance to please his own party faithful.

George Osborne- Osborne has had a relatively good week ahead of the Budget which will likely see him cutting of the top rate of tax and relaxed Sunday trading regulations during the Summer. Both policies are politically divisive however, so the Chancellor needs to present them in the correct manner to avoid attacks from Labour. No easy task given the financial state the country is in.

Bad Week

Ed Miliband- The Labour Leader has had a pretty terrible week. He failed to gain traction ahead of the Budget, had to answer questions about his dealings with a Hull based tycoon and watched as Barack Obama embraced David Cameron in Washington. Miliband’s personal ratings are dire with his own supporters as well, with a record low net score of minus seven with YouGov. As I say nigh on every week, Labour needs a compelling narrative pronto. Miliband’s Budget response this week will be pivotal to his party’s prospects short term as election season looms.

Harriet Harman- Harman this week had a lackluster at Prime Minister’s Questions and then totally “forgot” how much Labour’s bankers bonus tax would raise. This may have reinforced the notion that Labour cannot be trusted managing the economy with the electorate.

Rick Santorum- Newt Gingrich stayed in the GOP Presidential Race this week impacting on Santorum’s chances of beating Romney for the Republican Nomination.

Good Week, Bad Week 11/03/12…

Good Week

Ed Miliband- The Leader of the Opposition has had a good week on balance. Although Miliband had a shocker in a radio interview early in the week, the Coalition are still faltering with the proposed NHS Reforms so the Labour Leader’s attacks finally seem to be paying off. Labour’s poll lead with YouGov are stabilising at five percent which must also please Miliband greatly. After the NHS Bill goes through Labour’s next priority will likely be Police numbers before the Budget at the end of the month.

Yvette Cooper- Cooper (finally) is effectively attacking the Coalition on the issue of Police numbers. This should prove fertile ground for Labour in the short term but close to an election one wonders if the voting public may question how the opposition would raise Police numbers without the need for raising taxes.

Boris Johnson- The Mayor of London has had a good week by doing absolutely nothing politically, allowing Ken Livingstone to get himself into trouble over his tax affairs.

Bad Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had a bad week due to the NHS Reforms being in the spotlight for a fourth straight week. Cameron must be hoping that the bill goes through without issue and that the political debate moves onto the Budget as soon as possible.

Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister this week has been getting himself into a tangle over the NHS Reforms and taxation within his own party. The NHS Reforms are now neither backed or opposed by the Lib Dems as a whole and the prospect of “tycoon tax” seems baffling. Whilst I accept that Clegg needs to draw up a separate narrative for the Lib Dems heading into 2015, he needs such a narrative to be bold and above all else decisive. The Lib Dem Leader cannot afford to be labeled as a fence sitter come the next General Election in my opinion.

Newt Gingrich- Gingrich is widely expected to leave the GOP Race next week. Such a move would undoubtedly prolong the fight between Romney and Santorum yet further which would make Barack Obama a very happy man indeed.

Good Week, Bad Week 04/03/12…

Good Week

Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister has had his usual quiet week ahead of his rather tricky Spring Conference where the Coalition’s NHS reforms will be scrutinised yet futher. Clegg will be heartened that his YouGov approval rating amongst his own supporters has increased significantly, although his personal ratings with all voters are still dire.

Mitt Romney- Romney has the momentum going into Super Tuesday this Wednesday (in the UK). He should become in all but name the GOP Nominee for President this week.

David Miliband- Miliband has irked some in his own party by writing for The Sun on Sunday this week. I genuinely don’t see any issue with Miliband Major writing for The Sun on Sunday as looking inwards certainly will guarantee a Labour defeat in 2015.

Bad Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister’s week was dominated by a story about whether or not he rode a deceased horse. The definition of a slow news week. Aside from equine shenanigans, Cameron will be pleased that Labour are still failing to face up to spending cuts of any ilk.

Ed Miliband- The Leader of the Opposition has had rather stagnant week. He continued with attacks on the Coalition’s NHS Reforms and did little else of note. Miliband’s attacks on the proposed NHS Reforms aren’t proving effective with voters in the topline numbers of opinion polls which must frustrate him immensely. Miliband lack of narrative is clearly hurting Labour at this stage of the Parliament with the public. If Miliband can’t gain any traction soon, I can see a leadership challenge happening before the Summer.

Ed Balls– Balls stated this week that he will not commit his party to changes to tax credits and child benefits outlined by Coalition, further ruining his party’s fragile fiscal credibility in my opinion.

Good Week, Bad Week 26/02/12…

Good Week

Ed Miliband- The Leader of the Opposition has had yet another solid week. His attacks on the Coalition’s NHS reforms are resonating with the public and his personal approval ratings with YouGov are on the rise. That said, Miliband still has a long way to go before he can feel confident of winning the General Election. Labour are still neck and neck with the Tories in the polls and his approval ratings are roughly where William Hague’s approval ratings were in his second year as opposition leader. Miliband has recovered from his woes of January well but questions still remain if he can draw up a viable narrative which will guide Labour back to power.

George Osborne- Borrowing figures came in slightly lower than expected this week, allowing the Chancellor some wriggle room in the Budget next month. I expect Osborne to freeze petrol duty in the medium term plus bring forward infrastructure projects in rural areas in the Budget next month to sure up his party’s core vote. I don’t see the personal tax allowance being raised sharply, even though the Lib Dems have been lobbying for such a measure.

Mitt Romney- Romney got through this week relatively unscathed, matching Rick Santorum in the Arizona CNN Debate. Until one of the candidates in the GOP race drops out I cannot imagine Romney relinquishing his position as front runner for the Republican Presidential Nomination.

Bad Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had much the same week as last week, being heavily criticised on his proposed NHS Reforms from all sides. Cameron will take heart from his personal ratings with YouGov, which are still nearly (minus ten percent) in the positive region with all voters. Cameron will also know that Miliband can’t dine out on his beleaguered NHS Reforms forever and that the economy will still be the most important issue with voters at the next General Election.

Nick Clegg- A typically dull week for the Deputy Prime Minister spiced up by him seeming to say that young people were a “very naughty word” in a BBC interview.

Andrew Lansley- The Health Secretary marches on with his NHS Reforms knowing that his chances of surviving a reshuffle are slim at best.

Good Week, Bad Week 12/02/12…

Good Week

Ed Miliband- The Leader of the Opposition has had a very good week turning up the pressure on the Coalition’s Health Reforms. Miliband’s personal ratings have improved slightly too, although there is no real sign that the NHS Bill is hurting David Cameron’s personal ratings. Labour and Miliband must try to provide a narrative long term in which to slot these victories into otherwise their momentum will be lost however.

Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister has had an unspectacular week with the only highlight being a solid performance at Deputy Prime Minister’s Questions.

Rick Santorum- Santorum has had a great week, winning caucuses and leading in national polls. Can he challenge Romney for the GOP nomination? Doubtful in my opinion given Romney’s large war chest and his slightly more palatable views on social issues.

Bad Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had an awful week due to his proposed NHS Reforms. The issue for the Tories (and the Coalition as a whole) is that the NHS Reforms aren’t explainable to the public in a concise manner, leaving them open to attack from Labour. I doubt Cameron will sack Andrew Lansley immediately but in any subsequent reshuffle he has to be a near certainty to leave the Cabinet. Cameron will be heartened that even though he has had a bad week his party’s ratings with YouGov are stable, neck and neck with Labour.

Andrew Lansley- Lansley has come under fire for his NHS Reforms this week. Whether or not he stays in his job is largely up to the NHS Bill’s progress. If it is voted through without incident I can see Lansley staying until the summer. If the bill is amended much more I can see Lansley coming under increased pressure to resign from the Cabinet.

Newt Gingrich- Gingrich is coming under increasing pressure to pull out of the GOP race given his dismal poll ratings. I expect him to pull out within a month if his polling doesn’t start matching current second place holder Rick Santorum.

Good Week, Bad Week 29/01/12…

Good Week

Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister has had a very good week, reinforcing his party’s policy on tax allowances and again stressing the need for a “mansion” tax. Both of these policies are popular with voters (particularly Labour voters) so Clegg will be happy that he and his party are finally making progress in differentiating themselves from the Tories in the Coalition.

Ed Miliband- The Leader of the Opposition has had a decent week. He was solid at Prime Minister’s Questions and seems to have captured the mood of the people with his opinions on Stephen Hester’s bonus. There still is no real narrative from Labour however and Miliband’s personal polling is dire with YouGov.

Mitt Romney- Romney effectively won the GOP Presidential Race with a great performance in the CNN Florida Debate. Unless he does something incredibly crazy or stupid it’s not if but when Romney clinches the Republican Nomination.

Bad Week

David Cameron- Poor GDP figures underpinned a bad week for the Prime Minister. If the UK does fall back into recession in three months then I see the Tories Poll Ratings plummeting short term and Ed Miliband’s star rising. Which may please many in the Coalition perversely. Cameron’s personal ratings with YouGov are excellent however, in deep contrast with the Leader of the Opposition.

George Osborne- Osborne has had a bad week which mirrored the Prime Minister’s. GDP figures show it’s now looking increasingly likely that the UK will slip into recession. The problem for Osborne short term is that there is little he can do to solve the Eurozone crisis/uncertainty which seems to be partly causing such terrible GDP figures in the UK.

Liam Byrne- Labour’s position on a benefits cap have shifted from opposing a cap to not opposing a cap but with reservations to not opposing a cap so long as there is a regional element all in a week. Byrne isn’t doing Labour any favours by sending out mixed messages on such an important subject as Welfare.