Archive for YouGov

Good Week, Bad Week 24/06/12…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on June 24, 2012 by eljmayes

Good Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had a relatively good week, with his party slightly improving their position in the polls and a spat with Argentina that played well to the home audience. Cameron’s net personal ratings have improved markedly with YouGov in the past few weeks also, with the Tory leader now ten points or so ahead of Ed Miliband. A concern for the Tories will be how the rise in fuel duty in August affects the public mood. At the current time fuel prices are at their lowest level for months so a three pence rise in duty would not be that noticeable. However if fuel prices rise George Osborne could come under pressure to defer the rise in duty to the winter.

Nick Clegg- Clegg has had his usual quiet week, only being awoken by Michael Gove’s radical education reforms.

Ed Miliband- Miliband’s week hinged on a speech where he addressed the subject of immigration. Whilst I applaud the Labour leader for finally tackling a very difficult subject for his party, the speech did seem to hint that Labour would only tinker with the current status quo. Miliband needs to be bolder on immigration than the Coalition to renew trust with the working class and those aspirational voters who deserted Labour in 2010.

Bad Week

Harriet Harman- Harman was absolutely schooled at (stand in) Prime Minister’s Questions by William Hague this week. Performances of this ilk will make some in Labour party wonder why Harman is still Deputy Leader after five long years in her role.

Andy Burnham- Burnham seemed to have a lackluster performance substance wise on Question Time this week. That said, presentationally Burnham is streets ahead of  of nearly everyone in the Labour party currently.

Jimmy Carr- Carr was rumbled this week for tax avoidance. The new 737 will have to wait therefore.

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Good Week, Bad Week 29/04/12…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , on April 29, 2012 by eljmayes

Good Week

Ed Miliband- Miliband has had yet another good week, largely by default. His party are consistently well ahead across the polls, a prominent Cabinet member looks to be on the way out and his number two’s predictions about a double dip recession have rung true. The fact still remains that Labour has no clear narrative or policies three years ahead of a General Election. In the short term this is acceptable although in the long term it is clearly not. Unless the incompetence from the Coalition continues for three solid years Miliband and Labour will need a vision for Britain to win the next General Election.

Ed Balls- Balls has been proved right this week as the country dropped back into recession. Britain should be more like America in the Shadow Chancellor’s eyes, using an addition stimulus to provide growth. Why I don’t feel this stance will work for Labour in the long term is very simple- the public now have (largely) accepted that cuts are necessary and that further spending is folly.

Alan Sugar- Lord Sugar this week spoke out in writing against Ken Livingstone. This move will have some impact on Livingstone’s campaign, casting doubt on whether or not he can rule London for all ethnic groups.

Bad Week

David Cameron- Cameron has had a woeful week. The economy is officially in recession and Jeremy Hunt looks as if he will be exiting the Cabinet very soon, forcing an early summer reshuffle on the Prime Minister. Obviously the recession is incredibly bad news for the Coalition as it’s a tangible story/statistic that can never be erased. The Hunt/Murdoch issue may prove to be more damaging however, as the ghosts of sleaze from the nineties return to haunt the Tories.

Nick Clegg- Clegg has had his usual quiet week soured by his frankly diabolical approval ratings with YouGov.

George Osborne- Osborne may leave the Chancellor’s role in the summer to be replaced by William Hague. If that were to happen, I’d imagine Osborne would become the new Foreign Secretary in straight job swap.

Jeremy Hunt- Hunt as I write this is barely hanging onto his job in the Cabinet. I’d wager by the time I write the next “Good Week, Bad Week” he will have resigned, likely to have been replaced by Hugh Robertson.

Ken Livingstone- Another week goes by without Livingstone declaring his tax returns, compounding his issues with the electorate of trust.

Good Week, Bad Week 22/04/12…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on April 22, 2012 by eljmayes

Good Week

Ed Miliband- Miliband has had a good week with his party surging ahead in the polls (as much as thirteen points ahead of the Tories with YouGov). This should bode well for Labour in the upcoming Local Elections although losses in Glasgow and/or London would hurt Miliband’s credibility as a leader who can win when it matters.

Boris Johnson- The London Mayor bobbed and weaved to a score draw with Ken Livingstone in the Sky News London Mayoral Debate. At this point in time Johnson looks to be odds on to gain another term as London Mayor.

Brian Paddick- Paddick had a very solid Sky News London Mayoral Debate with some pundits claiming that the Lib Dem candidate won clearly. I wouldn’t have gone that far but it now looks certain that Paddick will easily outpoll his party in the capital.

Siobhan Benita- The Independent London Mayoral candidate’s campaign finally seemed to kick into second gear this week with increased media exposure. This could mean that Benita finishes an impressive fourth in the first round of London Mayoral voting.

Bad Week

David Cameron- Cameron has had a lousy week this week as the Budget continues to unravel, almost a month after it had been delivered. The good news for Cameron is that the Local Elections should draw a line under the Budget to an extent and put the pressure back on Miliband especially if Labour don’t make significant gains.

Nick Clegg- Clegg has had a middling week with the Lib Dem Leader facing the real possibility of a yellow wipeout on May 3rd. It is scant consolation that Clegg currently polls better than Miliband with ComRes therefore.

Ken Livingstone- Livingstone’s time to make a move in the London Mayoral race is quickly running out. He has performed badly in all of the debates so far and unless Johnson trips up epically in the final two weeks I can’t see a feasible scenario in which Livingstone becomes Mayor of London.

Jenny Jones- Jones puzzlingly didn’t show up to the Sky News London Mayoral Debate on Thursday night. Polling suggests it’s possible Jones could finish as low as sixth in the first round of London Mayoral voting.

Can Ken Livingstone Still Become London Mayor?..

Posted in Broadcasting with tags , , , , , on April 6, 2012 by eljmayes

Short answer “no”. Long answer “perhaps”. For Ken Livingstone to stand a chance of winning at this stage he needs three things to happen: –

Livingstone needs to release his full accounts- If he does not then great chunks of the remaining London Mayoral television debates will focus solely on his tax affairs. This clearly would play into Boris Johnson’s hands who already has said that the election is about “trust”, and with Livingstone’s full accounts remaining unpublished this would back up Johnson’s claim that the former London Mayor is indeed a “f***ing liar”.

Livingstone needs to stop talking about unfunded/wacky promises in the debates- A cut in transport fares. The reinstatement of the Educational Maintenance Allowance. Making London a separate state from the rest of the UK. All are at best highly ambitious and at worst utterly bonkers. Livingstone needs to accept we live in tough fiscal times and that the public simply will not even give a hearing to a candidate who strays from this narrative. The former London Mayor needs to talk about everyday issues and find solutions to them that are fiscally realistic. This is a tough ask given his socialist background but possible given the fact he has actually already been Mayor of London (which a lot of people seem to have totally forgotten about).

Livingstone needs the national polls to show a relatively large lead for Labour- If the national polls start to tighten then the need for Livingstone to win on May 3rd will increase significantly as Ed Miliband’s leadership comes under more scrutiny, heaping pressure on him in turn. Livingstone doesn’t seem to like pressure (who does?) so a solid ten point lead for Labour for a few weeks would allow him a chance to campaign without any such issues. I personally cannot see this happening even with YouGov but it is possible.

If the three scenarios above all play out for Livingstone then he has a moderate chance (around thirty three percent in my opinion) of becoming London Mayor. However, if he carries on with the smoke, mirrors and absurd statements then I can only see one winner on May 3rd, and that is Boris Johnson.

Good Week, Bad Week 18/03/12…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on March 18, 2012 by eljmayes

Good Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had a very good week with his visit to America being seen as a success by most commentators. Cameron will also be heartened by fact that Ed Miliband hasn’t made any political capital ahead of next week’s Budget and his party’s poll ratings are steady across the board at around thirty seven percent.

Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister got the rare opportunity to take the reigns for Prime Minister’s Questions and was in good form after a slow start. In the upcoming Budget the personal tax allowance looks as if it will be raised to around nine thousand pounds which will provide Clegg with a chance to please his own party faithful.

George Osborne- Osborne has had a relatively good week ahead of the Budget which will likely see him cutting of the top rate of tax and relaxed Sunday trading regulations during the Summer. Both policies are politically divisive however, so the Chancellor needs to present them in the correct manner to avoid attacks from Labour. No easy task given the financial state the country is in.

Bad Week

Ed Miliband- The Labour Leader has had a pretty terrible week. He failed to gain traction ahead of the Budget, had to answer questions about his dealings with a Hull based tycoon and watched as Barack Obama embraced David Cameron in Washington. Miliband’s personal ratings are dire with his own supporters as well, with a record low net score of minus seven with YouGov. As I say nigh on every week, Labour needs a compelling narrative pronto. Miliband’s Budget response this week will be pivotal to his party’s prospects short term as election season looms.

Harriet Harman- Harman this week had a lackluster at Prime Minister’s Questions and then totally “forgot” how much Labour’s bankers bonus tax would raise. This may have reinforced the notion that Labour cannot be trusted managing the economy with the electorate.

Rick Santorum- Newt Gingrich stayed in the GOP Presidential Race this week impacting on Santorum’s chances of beating Romney for the Republican Nomination.

Good Week, Bad Week 11/03/12…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on March 11, 2012 by eljmayes

Good Week

Ed Miliband- The Leader of the Opposition has had a good week on balance. Although Miliband had a shocker in a radio interview early in the week, the Coalition are still faltering with the proposed NHS Reforms so the Labour Leader’s attacks finally seem to be paying off. Labour’s poll lead with YouGov are stabilising at five percent which must also please Miliband greatly. After the NHS Bill goes through Labour’s next priority will likely be Police numbers before the Budget at the end of the month.

Yvette Cooper- Cooper (finally) is effectively attacking the Coalition on the issue of Police numbers. This should prove fertile ground for Labour in the short term but close to an election one wonders if the voting public may question how the opposition would raise Police numbers without the need for raising taxes.

Boris Johnson- The Mayor of London has had a good week by doing absolutely nothing politically, allowing Ken Livingstone to get himself into trouble over his tax affairs.

Bad Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister has had a bad week due to the NHS Reforms being in the spotlight for a fourth straight week. Cameron must be hoping that the bill goes through without issue and that the political debate moves onto the Budget as soon as possible.

Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister this week has been getting himself into a tangle over the NHS Reforms and taxation within his own party. The NHS Reforms are now neither backed or opposed by the Lib Dems as a whole and the prospect of “tycoon tax” seems baffling. Whilst I accept that Clegg needs to draw up a separate narrative for the Lib Dems heading into 2015, he needs such a narrative to be bold and above all else decisive. The Lib Dem Leader cannot afford to be labeled as a fence sitter come the next General Election in my opinion.

Newt Gingrich- Gingrich is widely expected to leave the GOP Race next week. Such a move would undoubtedly prolong the fight between Romney and Santorum yet further which would make Barack Obama a very happy man indeed.

Good Week, Bad Week 04/03/12…

Posted in Politics with tags , , , , , , , , , , on March 4, 2012 by eljmayes

Good Week

Nick Clegg- The Deputy Prime Minister has had his usual quiet week ahead of his rather tricky Spring Conference where the Coalition’s NHS reforms will be scrutinised yet futher. Clegg will be heartened that his YouGov approval rating amongst his own supporters has increased significantly, although his personal ratings with all voters are still dire.

Mitt Romney- Romney has the momentum going into Super Tuesday this Wednesday (in the UK). He should become in all but name the GOP Nominee for President this week.

David Miliband- Miliband has irked some in his own party by writing for The Sun on Sunday this week. I genuinely don’t see any issue with Miliband Major writing for The Sun on Sunday as looking inwards certainly will guarantee a Labour defeat in 2015.

Bad Week

David Cameron- The Prime Minister’s week was dominated by a story about whether or not he rode a deceased horse. The definition of a slow news week. Aside from equine shenanigans, Cameron will be pleased that Labour are still failing to face up to spending cuts of any ilk.

Ed Miliband- The Leader of the Opposition has had rather stagnant week. He continued with attacks on the Coalition’s NHS Reforms and did little else of note. Miliband’s attacks on the proposed NHS Reforms aren’t proving effective with voters in the topline numbers of opinion polls which must frustrate him immensely. Miliband lack of narrative is clearly hurting Labour at this stage of the Parliament with the public. If Miliband can’t gain any traction soon, I can see a leadership challenge happening before the Summer.

Ed Balls– Balls stated this week that he will not commit his party to changes to tax credits and child benefits outlined by Coalition, further ruining his party’s fragile fiscal credibility in my opinion.

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